[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N74W to 27N80W. Gale
force winds are N of 28N W of front to 78W with seas 10-12 ft.
This gale is forecast to last 12 hours. See latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

A localized strong pressure gradient is expected to develop in
the SW Caribbean Sea by 01/0600 UTC offshore of the coast of
Colombia with gale force NE winds from 10.5N to 13N between 74W
and 77W with seas 9-12 ft. This gale is forecast to last 12
hours. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N13W to
04N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 04N18W
to the Equator near 29W to the coast of South America near
1S46W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03S-03N
between 30W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from S Florida near 27N80W to the SE Gulf
of Mexico near 25N86W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm S of
front. 15 kt N winds are N of front. A 1024 mb high is centered
over the north central Gulf near 27N90W with 5-10 anticyclonic
winds and fair weather. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over
the far southern Bay of Campeche and S Mexico. In the upper
levels, zonal flow is over the Gulf. A band of upper level
moisture is over the central Gulf from S Florida to NE Mexico.
The remainder of the Gulf has strong subsidence. Expect in 24
hours for the front to extend from central Cuba to the Yucatan
Peninsula, and for the surface high to move to central Florida.
5-15 kt SE to S return flow will cover the entire Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A quasi-stationary front extends from E Cuba near 21N76W to
Honduras near 16N84W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
front. 15-20 kt N winds are N of front. 10-20 kt tradewinds are
over the remainder of the Caribbean with patches of scattered
showers. In the upper levels, zonal flow is over the Caribbean
with strong subsidence. Expect over the next 24 hours for the
quasi-stationary front to stay while the Gulf of Mexico front
moves south into the Caribbean with showers.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently isolated showers are over Hispaniola while in the
tradewind flow. Expect over the next 24 hours for pre-
frontal scattered showers to reach Hispaniola.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N74W to S Florida
near 27N80W. A gale is W of front. See above. Scattered showers
are within 90 nm W of front. Another cold front is over the W
Atlantic from 31N65W to E Cuba near 21N76W. Scattered showers
are within 90 nm W of this front also. A 1029 mb high is
centered over the central Atlantic near 30N27W. In the upper
levels an upper level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 20N W
of 60W supporting the surface fronts. Expect the two fronts to
move E with showers over the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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