[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282259
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Winds have increased to near gale this afternoon across the
central Caribbean as high pressure builds near Bermuda. Strong
nocturnal flow is expected along the northwest coast of
Colombia, with gale conditions during the evening, overnight,
and early morning hours, starting this evening through Wednesday
night and possibly through Saturday night. Seas are forecast to
build to 13 ft near the coast of Colombia. See the latest High
Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WHO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Africa near
07N12W to 00N17W. The ITCZ continues from 00N17W south of the
equator to the coast of South America.  Widely scattered
moderate convection is over a large area within 180 nm either
side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridging from a 1034 mb high centered over the Atlantic
near Bermuda is inducing 10 to 20 kt SE to S winds across the
whole Gulf of Mexico.  No deep convection or even showers are
present over the Gulf today, as it is overlain by subsident
ridging aloft.  A new cold front will reach the northwestern
Gulf coast Wednesday afternoon and quickly spread from near
Tampa southwestward to Tampico by Thursday afternoon. Gale
conditions are not expected in associaton with this front at
this time.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

No deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean and
associated land masses as a subsident ridge is present in the
upper troposphere as seen in the water vapor imagery. Winds have
increased to near gale this afternoon across the central
Caribbean as high pressure builds near Bermuda. A 1514 UTC ASCAT
scatterometer pass showed 30 kt just northwest of Colombia. See
Special Features section above for more details.  Elsewhere
across the Caribbean NE to E tradewinds of 15-25 kt are
occurring.  Scattered showers are present in the southern Lesser
Antilles, Puerto Rico, and along the upslope terrain of Central
America.  In general, winds across the Caribbean will be
enhanced during the next couple of days, with strongest
conditions northwest of Colombia.

...HISPANIOLA...

Widely scattered showers have been present over Hispaniola
today, though these have not likely cuased any significant
rainfall.  Expect little change over the next two days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 32N43W west-southwestward to 27N58W
where it becomes a stationary front to 26N71W.  Additionally, a
prefrontal trough extends from 31N40W to 26N46W.  Scattered
showers exist within 60 nm of both boundaries.  Winds are 20 kt
or less in association with these features.  A strong 1034 mb
high centered north of our area at 36N61W is inducing a moderate
north-south pressure gradient equatorward of the high.  NE to E
tradewinds of 20 to 25 kt are present in the Atlantic south of
22N between 66W and 74W including the Atlantic approach to the
Caribbean passages.  The cold front will continue eastward and a
secondary push of cool air will enhance the front and cause the
NE winds to reach around 25 kt on Wednesday and Thursday. Expect
the scattered showers to continue.  A vigorous cold front will
reach the Atlantic coast of northeastern Florida and Georgia by
Thursday morning.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Landsea
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