[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281712
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

...Caribbean Gale Warning...

Winds are forecast to increase across the central Caribbean this
evening as a high pressure builds over the southwest Atlantic.
Strong nocturnal flow is expected along the northwest coast of
Colombia, with gale conditions during the evening, overnight,
and early morning hours, starting this evening through Saturday
night. Seas are forecast to build to 13 ft near the coast of
Colombia. See the latest High Seas Forecast product under
AWIPS/WHO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Africa near
06N10W to 00N16W. The ITCZ continues from 00N16W to 02S30W to
the coast of South America at 03S40W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is over a large area within 180 nm either side of the
ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1035 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 36N63W
producing 10-20 kt SE surface flow over the Gulf of Mexico.
Stronger winds are over the W Gulf. Fair weather is over the
Gulf. In the upper levels, zonal flow is over the Gulf with
strong subsidence. Expect fair weather over most of the Gulf
over the next 24 hours as the surface high moves E. Morning fog
is possible along the Texas coast. Expect a cold front along the
Texas coast Wednesday evening with convection and 25 kt
northerly winds behind the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A gale to near gale winds are pulsing along the coast of N
Colombia. See above. Elsewhere, 15-25 kt tradewinds are over the
Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers are over N Venezuela, Windward
Islands, Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico,
Hispaniola, and E Cuba. Furthermore, scattered showers are now
advecting over Central America from Panama to Honduras. In the
upper levels, an upper level high is centered over the W
Caribbean near 17N83W. Strong subsidence covers the entire
Caribbean and Central America. Expect clusters of scattered
showers to continue to move W over the Caribbean, within the
tradewind flow, during the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola moving W in the
tradewind flow. Water vapor imagery shows very dry air/strong
subsidence aloft over the entire island, thus thunderstorms are
not likely. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1035 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 36N63W. A
cold front is over the central Atlantic from 31N48W to 26N62W.
A stationary front continues to 26N71W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of the fronts. A pre-frontal trough is over the
central Atlantic from 31N40W to 26N45W. Scattered showers are
within 60 nm of this trough. A 1026 mb high is over the E
Atlantic near 34N27W. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper
level trough is over the E Atlantic N of 20N E of 45W. Expect
over the next 24 hour for the cold front to move E to 31N38W
with showers.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Formosa
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