[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150107
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
807 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale...

A strong cold front extends across the northwest Gulf of Mexico
from 29N95W to 24N98W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
along the front mainly north of 25N between 90W-95W. Gale-force
northerly winds are expected to develop within the next 24 hours
over the Bay of Campeche south of 21N west of 95W as the front
moves southeast across the basin. This gale event is expected to
be short-lived with winds diminishing below gale force by
Wednesday night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Southwest N Atlantic Gale...

A cold front is forecast to sweep off the southeast coast by late
Wednesday. Southwest winds are forecast to increase to gale-force
and seas building to 10 FT north of 30N west of 78W by Wednesday
afternoon. The cold front is expected to sweep rapidly east and
extend from 31N72W to 26N81W by Thursday morning with southwest
gale-force winds within 600 NM east of the front north of 29N.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
03N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 03N19W to
00N35W to the South American coast near 02N50W. Scattered
moderate convection was noted within 120-180 nm on either side of
the ITCZ between 20W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A strong cold front extends across the northwest Gulf of Mexico
from 29N95W to 24N98W. Scattered moderate convection is observed
along the front mainly north of 25N between 90W-95W. Gale-force
winds are expected to develop across the Bay of Campeche as the
front moves southeast. Please refer to the section above for
details. To the east, a weak 1015 mb surface low is centered over
central Florida near 28N81W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate
to fresh northerly flow north of the front while gentle to
moderate southerly flow prevails south of the front and mainly
west of 90W. Light and variable winds prevail east of 90W. The
cold front will move southeast during the next 24 hours enhancing
winds/seas mainly across the southwest Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient across the Caribbean continues to weaken
as the high pressure north of the region dissipates. This is
resulting in a relaxing of the trade winds to gentle to moderate
across the majority of the basin, except over the south central
Caribbean where moderate to fresh winds prevail. Little change is
expected over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers are observed across the island transported by the
trades. Expect for the shower activity to decrease in coverage
over the next 24 hours as dry air spreads over the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal system extends across the basin analyzed as a cold front
from 31N52W to 25N65W then as a weakening cold front from that
point to 25N74W then as a weakening stationary front from 25N74W
to a 1015 mb surface low near 28N80W. A 1017 mb surface high is
centered near 22N68W. A surface trough extends from 27N45W to
20N59W with isolated showers. A surface ridge extends across the
remainder of the basin anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near
22N30W. Expect for the northern portion of the frontal system to
continue moving east. A new cold front will approach the southeast
U.S. with winds increasing to gale-force over the far northwest
corner of the basin. Please refer to the section above for
details.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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