[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...Gulf of Mexico Gale...

A strong cold front now emerging off the Texas coast is forecast
to sweep eastward and extend from 30N86W to 21N95W to 18.5N95W
by mid-morning Wed with NW to N winds increasing to 30-35 KT and
seas building to 10 FT. This gale event is expected to be short-
lived with winds diminishing below gale force by Wed evening.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Southwest N Atlantic Gale...

A cold front is forecast to sweep off the SE coast Wed evening.
S to SW winds are forecast to increase to 30-35 KT and seas
building to 10 FT N of 30N W of 78W by Wed afternoon. The cold
front is expected to sweep rapidly east and extend from 31N72W
to 26N81W by Thu morning with SW winds 30-35 KT continuing
within 600 NM east of the front N of 29N. Please read the latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to
01N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 01N16W
to 02N33W to the South American coast near 01N50W. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 120-180 nm
either side of the ITCZ between 25W and 44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front has emerged off the Texas coast between Port
O'Connor and just N of Brownsville as of 1500 UTC. A squall line
was noted within 45 NM east of the front and currently extends
from the Sabine River through 27.5N95.5W to 24.5N97W. WSR-88D
regional mosaics indicated that the squall line was slowly
weakening with time. Mostly fair conditions were noted elsewhere
over the Gulf with light SSE winds east of 90W increasing to 20
KT west of 90W. The shortwave trough supporting the cold front
was weakening with time as it was riding over a broad ridge in
the Gulf. Moderate to strong subsidence was noted over the Gulf
with some of the dry air entraining into the squall line and
resulting in slow weakening with time. The cold front is
forecast top move eastward across the Gulf over the next 24 to 48
hours with brief gale force winds S of 20N west of the cold front
Wed afternoon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient across the Caribbean is weakening as the
high pressure north of the region dissipates. This is resulting
in a relaxing of the trade winds to gentle to moderate across
the majority of the Caribbean, except over the south central
Caribbean where moderate to fresh winds prevail. Isolated
showers are observed over Hispaniola with a weakening frontal
boundary that extends across the island from the north. Little
change is expected over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Patches of broken to overcast low clouds with isolated showers
are over the island due to a remnant low level frontal trough in
the vicinity. The 12Z rawinsonde from San Juan Puerto Rico
indicated a weak trade wind inversion, precipitable water values
of 1.00 inch and light northerly winds up to 750 MB. Expect the
showers to decrease in coverage over the next 24 hours as dry
air spreads over the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N55W and
extends through 27N65W to 26N77W where it became stationary to
the Florida east coast near Stuart near a small 1016 MB surface
low. Widely scattered showers were noted along and within 90 NM
east of the front mainly north of 27N. Further east, a series of
surface troughs extended from 28N44W to the northeastern
Windward Islands. A surface ridge prevails across the eastern
Atlantic anchored by a stationary 1020 mb high centered near
21N33W. Over the next 24 hours, the surface high over the
western Atlantic will dissipate while the cold front will
continue moving east over the region. A new cold front will
approach the southeast U.S. with S to SW winds increasing to
gale force over the far northwest corner of the Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

Cobb
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