[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121118
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The surface pressure gradient between high pressure anchored
across the W Atlantic and low pressure across northern South
America is producing gale force E-NE winds along the coast of
Colombia this morning until 1200 UTC. The same area along the
coast of Colombia is expected to pulse to gale again this
evening from 0000 UTC until 1200 UTC Monday morning. See latest
NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02
KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
04N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
04N19W to 02N30W to the South American coast near 04S39W.
Scattered moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from
03N-06N between 07W-12W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
within 210 nm either side of the ITCZ axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N68W. A
ridge axis extends W to E Texas near 30N95W producing 10-15 kt E
to SE return flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Patchy fog mixed with
broken low clouds are over the NW Gulf N of 28N between Corpus
Christi Texas and Mobile Alabama producing possible IFR
conditions this morning. Fair weather is noted elsewhere. In the
upper levels, a large ridge is over the Gulf with axis along
95W. Upper level ridging covers the entire Gulf with very strong
subsidence. Expect in 24 hours for a weak cold front to drape
the N Gulf States from the Florida Panhandle to E Texas. Expect
this front to dip over the N Gulf along 27N in 48 hours with
showers. Furthermore, expect a new cold front along the Texas
coast Tuesday night with convection and 25 kt NW winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a stationary front is over Hispaniola producing
scattered showers. Residual surface moisture in the form of
scattered showers continues from Hispaniola to Jamaica to NE
Honduras. Elsewhere, a good amount of broken to overcast low
clouds with embedded showers are advecting over the S Leeward
Islands, Windward Islands, N Venezuela, and NE Colombia, from
the Atlantic. In the upper levels zonal flow is over Central
America and the Caribbean Sea with very strong subsidence.
Expect over the next 24 hours for the cold front over the
Atlantic to dip S and produce scattered showers from the N
Leeward Islands to Hispaniola. Also expect residual moisture
from the front to produce scattered showers from Hispaniola to
the Gulf of Honduras. Meanwhile, expect more scattered showers
along N Venezuela, N Colombia, and the SW Caribbean within the
tradewind flow.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over Hispaniola due to the stationary
front. Expect these conditions to persist for the next 24
hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N68W. A
cold front is over the central Atlantic from 32N43W to 26N50W to
21N64W. A stationary front continues to Hispaniola at 18N74W.
Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A small 1020 mb
high is over the E Atlantic near 29N37W. A 996 mb low is over
the E Atlantic n of the Canary Islands near 30N14W. A cold front
extends W from the low to 27N24W to beyond 32N31W. Near gale
force winds are noted near the Canary Islands and along the
coast of Morocco. Scattered moderate convection is also N of 31N
between 10W-15W. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper
level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 20N between 40W-
65W supporting the frontal system. Another large upper level
trough is over the E Atlantic N of 20N E of 30W supporting the E
Atlantic frontal system. Expect in 24 hours for the central
Atlantic cold front to move E to 32N35W. Also expect the E
Atlantic front to move E to W Africa.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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