[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST Sun Feb 12 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The regional pressure gradient between ridging anchored across
the W Atlantic and low pressure across northern South America is
producing gale force E-NE winds tonight into Sunday morning. The
wind field off the coast of Colombia is expected to pulse to
gale again Sunday night into Monday morning. See latest NWS High
Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
04N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
04N18W to 02N30W to the South American coast near 04S38W.
Isolated moderate convection is S of the monsoon trough from 00N-
05N between 06W-15W. Widely scattered moderate convection is
within 180 nm either side of the ITCZ axis.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N72W. A
ridge axis extends W to E Texas near 30N95W producing 10-15 kt E
to SE return flow over the Gulf of Mexico. Patchy fog mixed with
broken low clouds are over the NW Gulf to include the coasts of
Texas and Louisiana producing possible IFR conditions. Fair
weather is noted elsewhere. In the upper levels, a large ridge
is over the Gulf with axis along 95W. Upper level ridging covers
the entire Gulf with very strong subsidence. Expect in 24 hours
for a weak cold front to drape the N Gulf States from the
Florida Panhandle to E Texas. This front will dip over the N
Gulf, and will be followed by a new cold front along the Texas
coast Tue night with convection and 25 kt winds.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a stationary front is over Hispaniola producing
scattered showers. Residual surface moisture in the form of
scattered showers continues from Hispaniola to Jamaica to NE
Nicaragua. Elsewhere, a good amount of broken to overcast low
clouds with embedded showers are advecting over the S Leeward
Islands, Windward Islands, N Venezuela, and NE Colombia, from
the Atlantic. In the upper levels zonal flow is over Central
America and the Caribbean Sea with very strong subsidence.
Expect over the next 24 hours for the cold front over the
Atlantic to dip S and produce scattered showers from the N
Leeward Islands to Hispaniola. Also expect residual moisture in
the form of scattered showers to continue W to the Gulf of
Honduras. Meanwhile, expect scattered showers along N Venezuela,
N Colombia, and the SW Caribbean in the tradewind flow.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered showers are over Hispaniola due to the stationary
front. Expect these conditions to persist for the next 24
hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1026 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N72W. A
cold front is over the central Atlantic from 32N45W to 22N59W. A
stationary front continues to Hispaniola at 20N73W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm of the front. A small 1022 mb high is
over the E Atlantic near 30N38W. A 1000 mb low is over the E
Atlantic near 30N18W. A cold front extends W from the low to
beyond 32N30W. Gale force winds were noted N of this front near
32N25W on a 2214 UTC scatterometer pass. Scattered moderate
convection is also N of the Canary Islands between 10W-20W. Of
note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over the
central Atlantic N of 20N between 40W-65W supporting the frontal
system. Also another large upper level trough is over the E
Atlantic N of 20N E of 30W supporting the E Atlantic frontal
system. Expect over the next 24 hours for both cold fronts to
move E.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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