[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112254
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
554 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
The regional pressure gradient between ridging anchored across the
SW North Atlc...including the Florida peninsula...and lower
pressure across northern South America is forecast to support near
gale to gale force E-NE winds tonight into Sunday morning. The
wind field off the coast of Colombia is expected to pulse during
the late night and early morning hours again Sunday night into
Monday morning. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
03N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
03N19W to the Equator near 32W. Scattered moderate convection is
from 02N-08N between 03W-14W...S of 06N between 18W-30W...and S
of 03N between 30W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Water vapor imagery indicates mostly dry air aloft within a middle
to upper level ridge anchored over the basin. Conditions remain
fairly tranquil at the surface as the western periphery of a
ridge anchored across the SW North Atlc on a 1028 mb high centered
near 29N71W is providing mostly gentle to moderate S-SE winds.
The ridge is expected to influence the basin until Sunday night.
By Sunday night into Monday morning...the next frontal boundary
is forecast to emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts providing
a brief period of N-NE winds across the northern waters...quickly
rebounding as an area of low pressure develops across northern
Mexico late Monday into Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
An upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery over the
central Atlc that stretches SW to a broad base over Hispaniola.
The front supported by the troughing remains N of Hispaniola and
Puerto Rico...however lingering low-level moisture and cloudiness
extends across Hispaniola SW to Jamaica then to the coast of
Nicaragua. Isolated showers are possible within this 180 nm wide
corridor. In addition...isolated showers are occurring off the
coast of Yucatan peninsula and across the south-central and SE
portions of the basin. Otherwise...the remainder of the Caribbean
is under mostly moderate to fresh trades outside of the Special
Features area off the coast of Colombia. The trades are expected
to gradually weaken into gentle to moderate breeze levels by late
Monday as high pressure anchored to the N across the SW North
Atlc weakens.

...HISPANIOLA...
A stationary front extends along 20N between 67W-73W providing
focus for low-level moisture convergence and widely scattered
showers occurring across the island this evening. The front will
be slow to dissipate through Monday providing an increased
probability of showers and possible isolated tstms Sunday and
Sunday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over the central Atlc with axis extending from 32N48W to 25N54W to
a broad base over Hispaniola and vicinity. The troughing supports
a cold front analyzed from 32N46W SW to 27N53W then stationary to
N of Hispaniola near 20N70W. Scattered showers and widely
scattered tstms are occurring primarily N of 26N between 41W and
the front...while widely scattered showers are occurring within 90
nm either side of the front W of 52W. To the west of the front...
ridging influences a majority of the SW North Atlc anchored by a
1028 mb high centered near 30N70W. Otherwise...the remainder of
the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 30N38W and a complex 992
mb low centered SW of the Iberian peninsula near 36N11W. Several
waves of mid-level energy continues to rotate around the southern
periphery of the low pressure area with isolated showers and tstms
remaining mainly N of 28N E of 22N. A cold front S of the Azores
producing near gale to gale force northerlies is expected to enter
the discussion area during the next 6 to 12 hours between 20W-30W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net