[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111716
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The pressure gradient between ridging anchored across the SW north
Atlantic and the Florida peninsula, and low pressure across
northern South America was producing gale force northeast to east
winds earlier this morning. The wind field off the coast of
Colombia is expected to pulse back to gale during the late night
and early morning hours through Monday morning. See latest NWS
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 09N13W to
04N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
04N20W to 00N34W to the South American coast near 03S42W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of either side of
the ITCZ and Monsoon Trough axis west of 16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1028 mb high is centered over the western Atlantic near 30N71W
with a ridge axis that extends across the Florida peninsula to the
northwestern Gulf. This ridging supports fair conditions,
southeast to south surface winds of 10 to 15 kt, and seas mainly
between 3 to 5 ft. The only other feature of note is a thermal
trough from 23N93W to 18N94W that is void of convection. Fresh
easterly winds are within 120 nm of this trough as it moves
westward. Little change is expected over the next 24 hours.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure over the SW north
Atlantic and lower pressure over South America supports strong to
near gale force northeast to east winds over the south central
Caribbean, strong northeast winds over the Lee of Cuba and the
Windward Passage, and fresh east to northeast winds elsewhere over
the Caribbean basin. Patches of showers and isolated thunderstorms
are streaming across the eastern and central Caribbean, with more
isolated activity over the western Caribbean. Winds will pulse to
gale force near the Colombia coast tonight. Please see the special
features section for more details. Otherwise, little change is
expected over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are over
the northern half of the island due to a stationary front being
draped over the region. This front is expected to slowly weaken
over the next 24 hours. Expect enhanced shower activity to
continue during that time.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1028 mb high is centered near 30N71W. A cold front enters the
area of discussion near 31N48W and extends to 24N56W to 21N65W,
where it transitions to a stationary front to 20N74W. Scattered
moderate convection is north of 26N within 180 nm of either side
of the front. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms are within 120 nm of the front elsewhere. A 1026 mb
high is centered near 30N37W. Farther east, a cold front extends
into the area of discussion near 32N10W, across the Canary
islands, then back northwest to near 32N21W. Scattered showers are
along and north of this front. Over the next 24 hours the
stationary front will begin to dissipate as high pressure
continues over the western Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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