[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101117
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
617 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

The pressure gradient between a high pressure north of the
region and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support
fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean during
the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force within
about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia during the overnight and
early morning hours through the weekend. Latest wave guidance
shows seas building to 12-13 ft over the region with the strongest
winds. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 11N16W to
07N21W. The ITCZ continues from 07N21W to 00N39W. Isolated
showers are observed within 100 nm on either side of the
boundaries between 10W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A frontal system extends across the southern portion of the basin,
analyzed as a cold front from northern Cuba to 23N84W to 24N88W,
then as a stationary front from that point to 23N92W to 19N96W.
Infrared satellite imagery reveals a narrow band of cloudiness
with embedded showers in association with this front. Fresh to
strong northerly winds and seas of 6-7 ft follow the front. The
west part of the front will dissipate during the next 24 hours
while the eastern part will continue moving across the Yucatan
Channel and northwest Cuba today. Winds behind the front are
forecast to quickly veer to the northeast as a high pressure in
the wake of the front moves east over the eastern United States.
By tonight, the high pressure will move into the western
Atlantic, extending a ridge across the Gulf region. As a result,
southerly return flow will set up over the western Gulf. These
winds will spread east across the entire Gulf during the upcoming
weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean.
Please, see the Special Feature section for details. Elsewhere,
scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh winds across the
east and central Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds are
noted over the northwest Caribbean. A fast moving cold front is
entering the northwest Caribbean. The front will continue moving
east while gradually weaken across the central portion of the
basin. As a high pressure builds behind the front, expect
increasing northeasterly winds across Cuba and the Windward
Passage. Latest model guidance suggests that moderate to fresh
northeast winds will prevail across the northwest Caribbean
through the weekend with seas building to 8 ft. Shallow moisture
embedded in the trade wind flow will continue to move across the
region producing isolated quick-moving showers.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. By tonight,
an approaching frontal boundary will bring increasing cloudiness
with scattered showers and gusty winds. The front is forecast to
stall near the island during the weekend while dissipating.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N66W to
23N80W with isolated showers. A pre-frontal trough extends from
31N61W to 24N67W with scattered moderate convection. The latest
ASCAT pass depicted fresh to strong southwesterly winds ahead of
the front mainly north of 28N, while fresh to strong northwest
winds prevail behind the front. The front will extend from near
31N54W across the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba by this
evening, then will be near the coast of Hispaniola overnight, and
stall there during the weekend. High pressure will build in the
wake of the front by this evening. At that time, fresh to strong
northeasterly winds are expected across much of the Bahamas, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, the waters between the Bahamas and Cuba,
and across the Straits of Florida. To the east of the front, a
1034 mb high persists centered near 35N36W and extending across
the remainder of the basin. South of the ridge, fresh to strong
trade winds are noted affecting the tropical Atlantic between the
Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles. The high pressure is
forecast to remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours, then
will move southward while weakening on Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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