[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100540
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1230 AM EST Fri Feb 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING...

The pressure gradient between a high pressure north of the
region and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support
fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean during
the next several days. Winds will pulse to gale-force within
about 90 nm of the coast of Colombia during the overnight and
early morning hours through Sunday night. Latest wave guidance
shows seas building to 12-13 ft over the region with the
strongest winds. See the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic Ocean near 11N15W to
05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 03N39W. Isolated
showers are observed within 100 nm on either side of the
boundaries between 10W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving across the Gulf of Mexico and extends
from South Florida near 25N81W to 24N95W to 20N96W.  Visible
satellite imagery reveals a narrow band of cloudiness with
embedded showers in association with this front. Fresh to strong
northerly winds and seas of 6-7 ft follow the front. The west
part of the front will stall and weaken while the east part will
continue moving across the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba by
Friday morning. Winds behind the front are forecast to quickly
veer to the northeast on Friday as a high pressure in the wake
of the front moves east over the eastern United States. By late
Friday, the high pressure will move into the western Atlantic,
extending a ridge across the Gulf region. As a result, southerly
return flow will set up over the western Gulf. These winds will
spread east across the entire Gulf during the upcoming weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the south-central Caribbean.
Please, see the Special Feature section for details. Elsewhere,
scatterometer data depicts  moderate to fresh winds across the
east and central Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds are
noted over the northwest Caribbean. A fast moving cold front
will reach western Cuba and the west Caribbean by Friday morning
with convection. The front will continue moving east while
gradually weaken across the western portion of the basin. As a
high pressure builds behind the front, expect increasing
northeasterly winds across Cuba and the Windward Passage. Latest
model guidance suggests that moderate to fresh northeast winds
will prevail across the northwest Caribbean through the weekend
with seas building to 8 ft. Shallow moisture embedded in the
trade wind flow will continue to move across the region
producing isolated quick-moving showers.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. By late
Friday, an approaching frontal boundary will bring increasing
cloudiness with scattered showers and gusty winds. The front is
forecast to stall near the island during the weekend while
dissipating.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N70W to
25N80W with isolated showers. The most recent ASCAT depicted
fresh to strong southwesterly winds ahead of the front, mainly
north of 28N while fresh to strong northwest winds prevail
behind the front. The front will extend from near 31N54W across
the southern Bahamas and eastern Cuba by Friday evening, then
will be near the coast of Hispaniola by Friday night, and stall
there during the weekend. High pressure will build in the wake
of the front  by Friday evening. At that time, fresh to strong
northeasterly winds are expected across much of the Bahamas, the
Turks and Caicos Islands, the waters between the Bahamas and
Cuba, and across the Straits of Florida. To the east of the
front, a 1035 mb high persists centered near 35N35W and
extending across the remainder of the basin. South of the ridge,
fresh to strong trade winds are noted affecting the tropical
Atlantic between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles.
The high pressure is forecast to remain nearly stationary over
the next 24 hours, then will move southward while weakening on
Saturday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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