[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061721
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1221 PM EST Mon Feb 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale force east to northeast winds have ended this morning along
the coast of Colombia. However, this area will see pulsing of the
wind field back to minimal gale force tonight. See latest NWS
High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC
for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
04N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
03N21W to 01N35W and crosses the Equator near 40W, extending to
the coast of S. America near 02S45W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is S of 05N between 10W and 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge axis extends across the Gulf of Mexico from a weak high
pressure center over the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico.
This is supporting light to gentle winds over the northeastern
Gulf and moderate to fresh winds over the remainder of the Gulf.
Generally fair weather is occurring under this ridge. The only
exception to the fair weather across the Gulf is a thermally
induced surface trough extending from 22N92W to 18N93W. This
trough supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
south of 24N between 90W and 96W. Over the next 24 hours the
center of the high will become absorbed by ridging over the
western Atlantic. With the eastward shift of the high, expect
southerly winds to increase slightly over the Gulf basin through
Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong to near gale winds today across a portion of the SW
Caribbean will pulse to gale-force tonight near the coast of
Colombia. Please refer to the special features section for more
details. The remainder of the basin is expected to remain
relatively tranquil into Tuesday as mostly dry air and subsidence
prevails aloft as noted on water vapor imagery. Only a few
isolated showers are possible across the eastern waters and
portions of the W Caribbean waters S of 18N west of 76W.
Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades prevail with little change
expected through Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Isolated showers in moderate to occasional fresh trade wind flow
will continue to affect the island through tonight. A surface
trough east of the area will cross the eastern portion of the
island Tuesday with increasing coverage of showers over the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the area of discussion near 31N72W and extends
to near 27N78W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are north of
30N within 210 nm east of the front. A surface trough extends from
23N65W to the northern coast of Puerto Rico. Scattered to numerous showers
are within 120 nm of this trough. A weakening frontal system
covers the central Atlantic with a cold front entering the area of
discussion near 31N36W and extending to 29N42W. There, the front
transitions to a stationary front to 28N50W to 25N61W. No
significant convection is noted with this front. High pressure
centered just north of the area dominates the remainder of the
central and eastern Atlantic.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Latto
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