[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061059
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
558 AM EST Mon Feb 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
Strong E-NE winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea near the
coast of Colombia are reaching minimal gale force tonight and are
forecast through 06/1200 UTC. This area will see pulsing of the
wind field to minimal gale force each late night into the early
morning hours through Wednesday. See latest NWS High Seas
Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more
details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
08N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
04N17W to 01N22W to the Equator near 27W then along the Equator to
38W. Widely scattered moderate convection is S of 04N between
14W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Tranquil conditions prevail across the Gulf this morning as the
southwestern periphery of a surface ridge anchored by a 1023 mb
high centered across the NE Gulf influences much of the basin.
Generally fair skies are noted on shortwave infrared satellite
imagery with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds occurring E of
90W and moderate E-SE winds occurring W of 90W. The ridging will
shift eastward into the SW North Atlc by Monday night as gentle to
moderate E-SE winds are expected to veer more southerly into
Tuesday. The next cold front is forecast to emerge off the Texas
and Louisiana coasts early Thursday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Aside from the near gale to gale force winds occurring across a
portion of the SW Caribbean...the remainder of the basin is
expected to remain relatively tranquil Monday into Tuesday as
mostly dry air and subsidence prevails aloft as noted on water
vapor imagery. Only a few isolated showers are possible across the
eastern waters and portions of the SW Caribbean waters S of 13N
between 78W-81W. Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades prevail
with little change expected through Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Isolated showers in moderate to occasional fresh trade wind flow
will continue to affect the island through Monday night.
Conditions are expected to remain stable overall as dry air and
strong subsidence prevails aloft.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
Primarily zonal middle to upper level flow prevails over the SW
North Atlc region this morning...while water vapor imagery
indicates subtle mid-level shortwave troughing N of the discussion
area in the vicinity of 39N60W. This troughing supports a cold
front extending through 32N73W SW to the Florida peninsula near
27N80W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring generally N of
30N between 66W and the front. Farther east...another cold front
extends from 32N35W SW to 30N41W then begins to become diffuse as
a stationary front to 25N58W. Isolated showers are possible
within 120 nm either side of the front. Otherwise...the remainder
of the eastern Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 33N19W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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