[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1241 AM EST Mon Dec 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...Gale Warning in the Caribbean Sea...

Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. The conditions of:
NE gale-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 11 feet to 14
feet, will start from 10N to 13N between 74W and 77W, during the
early morning hours of today, until around sunrise today.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia
near 05N09W to 05N12W. The ITCZ continues from 05N12W to 05N20W,
03N40W, to the Equator along 50W, into NE Brazil near the Equator
along 52W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong within 60
nm to the N of the ITCZ between 20W and 21W, and within 280 nm to
the N of the ITCZ between 34W and 43W. isolated moderate to
locally strong elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough cuts through Louisiana into NE Mexico. The
trough is supporting a cold front, that passes through NE Florida,
into the central Gulf of Mexico. The front becomes stationary, as
it curves from the central Gulf of Mexico to 23N95W, and to the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec. A second cold front just has reached the
NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The second front is forecast to
merge with the cold front/stationary front later during the day
today. Broken low level clouds from 23N northward. Broken low
level clouds and possible rainshowers are from 23N southward from
93W westward.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 70W
eastward, with the 25N45W-18N58W-15N65W Atlantic Ocean-to-
eastern Caribbean Sea trough. The trough has remained in the area
during the last day or two.

A second area of upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the
western Caribbean Sea and Central America from 10N to 18N between
80W and 90W, from Panama to Belize/the Yucatan Peninsula. Broken
low level clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are in the same
area.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NE wind flow, and comparatively drier air in
subsidence in water vapor imagery, cover Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...HAITI, in Port-au-Prince: VFR. in the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: VFR everywhere.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that W-to-NW wind flow
will move across the island during the next 2 days. A ridge will
extend from Colombia northwestward, into the Caribbean Sea.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that NE wind flow will
move across the area during the next 2 days. A ridge will extend
from the Atlantic Ocean to NW Cuba. The GFS MODEL forecast for
700 mb shows that NE wind flow will move across the area during
the next 2 days, with an Atlantic Ocean ridge.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough extends from a 33N34W cyclonic circulation
center, to 25N45W, to an 18N58W cyclonic circulation center, to
15N65W in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Isolated moderate rainshowers
are from 19N to 23N between 52W and 60W, and from 10N to 16N
between 40W and 54W.

A surface ridge passes through 32N54W to 27N72W. Surface anticyclonic
wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N northward between
Africa and 60W, and from 20N northward from 72W eastward.
Rainshowers are possible from 23N northward from 63W westward.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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