[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242350
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
650 PM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...Gale Warning for the coast of Colombia...

High pressure over the Atlantic will continue to tighten the
pressure gradient over the south-central and southwest Caribbean
Sea supporting minimal gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia
at night through tonight. The high pressure will weaken on Monday,
but will maintain strong trades over the Central and SW Caribbean
through Thursday, with near gale force nocturnal winds near the
coast of Colombia. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Liberia, Africa and continues to
04N11W. The ITCZ axis extends from 04N11W to 04N30W to 0N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 01N-10N between 30W and
50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend to
near 26N90W where it becomes stationary to the western Bay of
Campeche near 18N94W. Gentle to light winds are ahead and behind
the frontal boundary with seas generally in the 4-6 ft. The northern
half of the front will continue to drift east ahead of a reinforcing
cold front moving across the northern Gulf waters. The fronts
will merge tonight and reach from SW Florida to near Veracruz,
Mexico Mon morning, before stalling and weakening from the Straits
of Florida to near Veracruz late Mon. Fresh to strong N-NE winds
will follow the reinforcing cold front with seas building to 6-7
ft across the north and SW Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to near gale force winds are across the central Caribbean
from 10N to 16N between 73W and 80W. Seas of 8-11 ft are in this
region with the strongest winds and seas being near the coast of
Colombia. Gale force winds are forecast to develop tonight through
Monday morning. Please, see Special Features section for more
details. Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind
flow are producing isolated to scattered passing showers over the
Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and Jamaica as well as the Lesser
Antilles. Showers carried by the trades are also affecting parts
of Central America. Little change in this weather pattern is
forecast over the next two or three days. Fresh to strong NE winds
are expected through the Windward Passage on Tue and Wed. Large E
swell will build seas to 9 ft E of the Lesser Antilles along 55W
beginning on Mon night, with these swells reaching the E Atlantic
passages on Tue evening and continuing through Thu evening.

...HISPANIOLA...

Low-topped trade wind scattered to isolated showers will continue
to move across the island. Mostly dry and stable conditions are
expected to persist over the next couple of days under the
influence of a mid-upper level ridge and associated strong
subsidence.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle to upper level trough associated with the next cold
front to the enter the SW N Atlc waters starts to slide in this
region supporting a surface trough extending from the northern
Bahamas to north-central Cuba. Isolated to scattered passing
showers are possible in the aforementioned region W of 70W. A
ridge extends across the remainder Atlantic waters. The ridge
will retreat eastward tonight as the cold front moves off the NE
Florida coast. The front will reach from 31N73W to south Florida
by early Monday afternoon, then stall from 31N63W to the Northern
Bahamas on Tue while gradually weakening. The remainder of the
Atlantic will continue under the influence of a ridge, anchored by
a high pressure located near the Azores. This system will undergo
occasional intensity fluctuations, resulting in a rather tight
pressure gradient across the waters N of the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough
between the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles through at
least Wednesday.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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