[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240553
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1253 AM EST Sun Dec 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...

Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. A cold front is in
the Gulf of Mexico along 30N86W 22N95W 18.5N95W. Gale-force NW-to-N
winds and sea heights to 8 feet are to the S of 20N W of the cold
front. The gale-force wind conditions are forecast to be subsiding
during the early morning hours of today.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 04N,
to 02N11W and 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W to 04N25W
03N44W, to 03N51W at the coast of Brazil. Precipitation: scattered
strong from 05N to 06N between 23W and 25W, and from 05N to 06N
between 33W and 35W. isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere
from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level SW wind flow and broken-to-overcast high level clouds
cover the NW half of the Gulf of Mexico. Anticyclonic wind flow
and comparatively drier air in subsidence in water vapor imagery
cover the SE half of the area.

A cold front passes through the Florida Panhandle, into the
central Gulf of Mexico, into the SW corner of the area. Low clouds
and possible rainshowers cover inland areas from Guatemala to the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec. Rainshowers are possible also in the SW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico from 20N southward. Please read the
SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the gale-force winds
to the west of the cold front in the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

MVFR at KVOA and KMIS, off the coast of SE Louisiana. VFR
elsewhere.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: VFR. LOUISIANA: MVFR. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR/IFR. ALABAMA:
MVFR/IFR/LIFR from Evergreen-to-Dothan southward. FLORIDA: IFR
mostly, some MVFR and LIFR from Cross City westward. light rain in
parts of the Panama City metropolitan area. light rain at the St.
Pete-Clearwater International Airport. LIFR with fog in the NE
part of the Tampa/St. Petersburg metropolitan area. MVFR in
Sarasota. LIFR with fog in Punta Gorda.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 70W
eastward, with the 26N51W 17N60W 15N65W Atlantic Ocean-to-
eastern Caribbean Sea trough, that has remained in the area during
the last day or two. A second upper level trough extends from the
Windward Passage to Honduras. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in
the Caribbean Sea from 12N to 16N between 80W and the coast of
Central America.

Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, in areas of broken low level
clouds that are spread across the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at
24/0000 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are: 0.12 in in
Guadeloupe, and 0.01 in Curacao.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NE wind flow, and comparatively drier air in
subsidence in water vapor imagery, cover Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...HAITI, in Port-au-Prince: VFR. in the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds.
Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling 1700 feet. VFR...elsewhere.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that day one will consist
of a trough in the eastern half of the island and a ridge in the
western half of the island. The trough will shift to the
northern half of the island, and a ridge will cover the southern
half of the island. A ridge finally covers the entire island by
the end of day one. Expect NW wind flow everywhere during day
two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that NE wind flow
will move across the area during the next 2 days. An anticyclonic
circulation center will be across Cuba. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 mb shows that the first half of day one will consist of
E-to-SE wind flow, and the second half of day one will consist of
NE wind flow. Day two will consist of NE wind flow.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N43W to 26N51W to 17N60W
and 15N65W. A surface trough is along 32N56W 28N55W 23N56W. A
second surface trough is along 28N63W 25N66W 22N66W.
Precipitation: isolated moderate from 10N to 24N between 40W and
60W. rainshowers are possible from 22N to 30N between 60W and 80W.

A surface ridge passes through Bermuda to 30N72W, across Lake
Okeechobee in Florida, to 25N85W in the Gulf of Mexico.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 15N
northward between Africa and 50W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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