[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232335
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
635 PM EST Sat Dec 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico...

As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from Pensacola, Florida SW to
24N94W to the western Bay of Campeche near 18N95W. Latest scatterometer
data show NW to N gale force winds behind the cold front S of 23N
W of the front. The front will reach from the Florida Big Bend to
the western Bay of Campeche Sunday morning, and then from central
Florida SW to near Veracruz, Mexico Monday morning. Gale winds
will diminish by early Sunday morning. By Monday night, gentle to
moderate easterly winds will dominate most of the Gulf region
with seas of 4-6 ft. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...Gale Warning for the coast of Colombia...

High pressure over the Atlantic tightens the pressure gradient
over the south-central and southwest Caribbean Sea, thus leading
to gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia at night through
Sunday. The high pressure will weaken Mon, but still will
maintain strong trades over the Central and SW Caribbean through
Wed, with near gale force nocturnal winds near the coast of
Colombia. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through Nigeria and
and continues to 03N at the Prime Meridian to 03N16W. The ITCZ
axis extends from 03N16W to 04N26W to 02N38W to NE Brazil near
0N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is N of 01S E of
03E. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 0N to 05N
between 02W and 14W and from 04N to 09N between 20W and 54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is moving across the Gulf waters. Please, see
Special Features section for details. E of the front, a ridge from
the Atlantic Ocean extends across Florida into the eastern Gulf
of Mexico, and provides gentle to moderate southerly return flow
ahead of it. The aforementioned ridge will continue to bring
mostly clear skies, light winds, and warm temperatures across
South Florida the remainder of the weekend. On Monday night, the
cold front will move across South Florida where its tail will
stall through Tuesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Latest scatterometer data continue to show fresh to strong winds
across the central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh NE winds
persist across the Windward Passage. Seas of 11-13 ft are in this
region with the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia.
Patches of low level moisture embedded in the trade wind flow are
producing isolated to scattered passing showers over the central
and eastern Caribbean, including Hispaniola, Puerto Rico and the
Lesser Antilles. Showers carried by the trades are aslo affecting
the ABC Islands and parts of Central America, including the Gulf
of Honduras. High pressure N of the area will maintain strong
trades over the central and SW Caribbean through Wed, with near
gale to gale force nocturnal winds near the coast of Colombia
through Sunday. See special features for further details. Fresh
to strong NE winds are expected through the Windward Passage as
well. Large E swell will build seas to 9 ft E of the Lesser
Antilles on Mon night, and on the E Atlantic passages on Tue
evening. At that time, expect building seas to 10 ft.

...HISPANIOLA...

Low-topped trade wind showers will continue to move across the
island the remainder of the weekend. High pressure over the
Atlantic will continue to support pulses of fresh to locally
strong winds across the Windward Passage through Sunday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A ridge dominates the western Atlantic, including the Bahamas and
the State of Florida. A frontal trough extends from a weak low
pressure of 1023 mb located near 30N53W to 25N53W to 21N55W.
These features are forecast to dissipate over the next 24 hours.
No convection is associated with these features. E of the frontal
trough, a strong 1038 mb high pressure centered NE of the Azores
extends a ridge across the remainder of the Atlantic. The pressure
gradient between this strong high pressure and lower pressure in
the vicinity of the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting fresh to
strong winds mainly N of 11N between the coast of Africa and 40W,
with seas of up to 12 ft. This high pressure has displaced the
monsoon trough/ITCZ farther south. The next cold front will move
off the NE Florida coast on Sun night, and stall from near
Bermuda to Central Cuba by Tue.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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