[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071159
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
659 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the NE Florida Panhandle, to a W
central Gulf of Mexico 1015 mb low pressure center that is near
25N93W, to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W, and inland near
21N99W. A stationary front continues from 20N99W to 26N101W.
Expect NE gale-force winds and sea heights reaching 11 feet, to
the west of the line from 30N83W to 25N95W. Gale-force winds are
being forecast with respect to the cold front, during the next 48
hours. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 for more details.

Upper level moisture, and middle level-to-upper level W-to-SW
wind flow, are to the west of the line that passes through 32N71W
in the Atlantic Ocean, to Florida near 28N82W, to 25N90W, and
22N98W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the NW of
27N82W 23N90W 20N94W, and from 20N southward in the SW corner of
the Gulf of Mexico.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W to
05N25W, 03N34W, and 04N43W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong rainshowers within 60 nm to 120 nm on
either side of the line from 04N07W to 04N14W to 05N26W to 05N31W,
and within 180 nm on either side of the line from 05N31W to
08N43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the
current cold front, that passes through NE Florida, into the west
central Gulf of Mexico, to the Mexico coast near 20N98W.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KMZG, KBBF, KGHB, KGRY, KIKT, KVKY and KMIS.

MVFR: KBQX, KHHV, KVAF, KHQI, KEMK, KEHC, KGBK, KVQT, KEIR, KSPR,
KATP, KVOA, and KDLP.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

CONDITIONS WITH THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT: from the
middle TEXAS coast southward: IFR and rain, heavy at times.
from the middle TEXAS Gulf coast to the Panama City Florida
metropolitan area: VFR and light rain. for the rest of FLORIDA:
IFR and light rain from Panama City to Cross City. from
Brooksville to Punta Gorda: LIFR and fog. from Fort Myers to
Naples: MVFR/VFR, conditions improving from earlier LIFR and fog.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from NW Colombia to the Yucatan
Channel.

A surface trough is along the coast from E Honduras to Nicaragua
and E Honduras. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 73W
in Colombia, beyond 84W near Costa Rica, and into the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong rainshowers within 240 nm of the coast from the
Yucatan Peninsula near 19N87W to SE coastal Nicaragua.

Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea from the
Greater Antilles southward from 72W eastward. This precipitation
is related to remnant atmospheric instability, from an already-
dissipated frontal boundary of the last few days, that has moved
into the area from the Atlantic Ocean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area.
Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...in the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo:
rain and thunder. few cumulonimbus clouds. Punta Cana: MVFR.
ceiling 1800 feet. Santiago: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1200 feet.
VFR at the rest of the observation stations.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that a ridge will start
along the line from NW Colombia to the Yucatan Channel, to a line
from N Colombia across Hispaniola. Expect W-to-NW wind flow during
the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that
E-to-SE wind flow will move across the area during day one, with
an Atlantic Ocean ridge. Day two will consist of SE-to-S wind
flow, with the same Atlantic Ocean ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 mb shows that broad E-to-SE wind flow, with intermittent
inverted troughs, will move across the area, during the next two
days.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layer trough is moving through the central sections of
the Atlantic Ocean, roughly along 40W/41W. The trough supports a
cold front that curves through 32N35W to 23N36W to 17N47W, and to
17N62W, at the edge of the NE Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier
air in subsidence is to the W and NW of the line that passes
through 30N36W 25N35W 22N40W 24N36W 19N50W 17N60W, and toward
eastern Puerto Rico. The area of drier air has been moving
southward with time, and it has been pushing moisture and remnant
atmospheric instability from an already-dissipated frontal
boundary from the last few days, from the Atlantic Ocean into the
Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 26N northward between 30W and 36W.
rainshowers are possible also within 180 nm on either side of the
line 26N33W 20N33W 18N40W 15N50W 15N61W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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