[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070602
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
102 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front passes through the NE Florida Panhandle, into the N
central Gulf of Mexico near 27N90W, to a 1015 mb low pressure
center that is near 25N93W, to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W,
and inland near 20N98W. A stationary front continues from 20N98W
to 25N100W. Expect NE gale-force winds and sea heights reaching
11 feet, to the west of the line from 30N88W to 26N94W. Gale-force
winds are being forecast with respect to the cold front, during
the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 for more details.

Upper level moisture, and middle level-to-upper level W-to-SW
wind flow, are to the west of the line that passes through 32N71W
in the Atlantic Ocean, to Florida near 29N82W, to 25N90W, and
22N98W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible to the east of
26N86W 22N85W, and to the NW of 27N87W 25N91W 23N92W 18N94W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to
05N30W, 04N40W, 06N46W, and to 05N53W at the coast of French
Guiana. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong rainshowers are from 03N to 10N between 06W and 44W.
Isolated moderate elsewhere from 10N southward between 44W and
60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the
current cold front, that passes through NE Florida, into the west
central Gulf of Mexico, to the Mexico coast near 20N98W.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KGRY.
IFR: KMZG, KBBF, KBQX, KXIH, KHQI, and KVOA.
MVFR: KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KEHC, KGBK, KVQT, KGHB, KEIR, KSPR, KATP,
KIKT, and KVKY.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

CONDITIONS WITH THE CURRENT GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT: from the
DEEP SOUTH of TEXAS to Cross City in FLORIDA: IFR/MVFR and rain
in TEXAS. VFR and rain from LOUISIANA to ALABAMA. MVFR/VFR and
rain in FLORIDA from the Panhandle to Cross City. LIFR/IFR and fog
from Brooksville to Punta Gorda.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from NW Colombia to the Yucatan
Channel.

A surface trough is along the coast from E Honduras to Nicaragua
and E Honduras. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in
Colombia beyond 84W near Costa Rica, and into the eastern Pacific
Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers within 180 nm of the coast from the Yucatan Peninsula
near 19N88W to SE coastal Nicaragua.

Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the Caribbean Sea from the
Greater Antilles southward from 73W eastward. This precipitation
is related to remnant instability from an already-dissipated
frontal boundary of the last few days, that has moved into the
area from the Atlantic Ocean.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NW wind flow is moving across the area.
Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...VFR for Port-au-Prince in Haiti. in the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: VFR at all the observations stations. few
cumulonimbus clouds in Barahona.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that a ridge will start
along the line from NW Colombia to the Yucatan Channel, to a line
from N Colombia across Hispaniola. Expect W-to-NW wind flow during
the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that
E-to-SE wind flow will move across the area during day one, with
an Atlantic Ocean ridge. Day two will consist of SE-to-S wind
flow, with the same Atlantic Ocean ridge. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 700 mb shows that broad E-to-SE wind flow, with intermittent
inverted troughs, will move across the area, during the next two
days.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layer trough is moving through the central sections of
the Atlantic Ocean, roughly along 40W/41W. The trough supports a
cold front that curves through 32N35W to 22N40W to 17N50W, and to
18N62W, at the edge of the NE Caribbean Sea. Comparatively drier
air in subsidence is to the W and NW of the line that passes
through 30N36W 27N35W 22N40W 19N50W 18N60W, and to eastern Puerto
Rico. The area of drier air has been moving southward with time,
and it has been pushing moisture and remnant instability from an
already-dissipated frontal boundary from the last few days, from
the Atlantic Ocean into the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 26N northward between
30W and 36W. rainshowers are possible also within 180 nm on either
side of the line 26N33W 22N34W 18N40W 16N50W 16N61W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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