[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060528
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 AM EDT Sun Aug 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis extending
from Jamaica near 18N78W to E Panama near 09N78W, moving W at 15
kt. The wave is in a region of mostly low to moderate vertical
wind shear, and is underneath upper level divergent flow. Fresh
to near gale force winds was noted in satellite wind data
associated with this system. Clusters of scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection are within 180 nm either side of the
axis. The wave has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone
during the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC Tropical
Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for
more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over the central Atlantic with axis extending
from 18N35W to 08N36W moving W at 10-15 kt. A 1012 mb low is W of
the wave near 11N40W. Moderate to strong vertical wind shear is
to the north of the low center. The wave and low are in a moist
environment. Dry Saharan air is noted N of 18N. The wave axis
is well depicted at 700 mb. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 07N-16N between 32W-42W.

A tropical wave extends is in the central Atlc with axis
extending from 19N54W to 10N56W, moving W at 15 kt. The wave is
in a region of mainly moderate to strong vertical wind shear.
The wave is in a moist environment as seen on SSMI TPW imagery.
The wave has a 700 mb trough W of the current position. Widely
scattered moderate convection is from 10N-18N between 54W-59W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
09N25W to 12N36W to 08N44W to 10N50W. Aside from convection
associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 07N-11N between 22W-27W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging is over the N Gulf of Mexico with axis along
29N. 10-15 kt SE surface winds are over most of the Gulf. Further
S, a surface trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula from 21N89W to
Guatemala near 15N92W. Scattered moderate convection is over the N
Yucatan Peninsula from 18N-21N between 89W-92W. In the upper
levels, a broad upper level trough is over the N Gulf N of 27N
with upper level moisture and cloudiness. Expect over the next 24
hours for airmass showers and thunderstorms to reform over the N
Gulf during the afternoon and evening hours Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A special feature tropical wave is moving across the central
Caribbean. This is main weather producer in the basin and has the
potential for further development as it moves WNW. See above.
Elsewhere, numerous strong convection is inland over W Honduras
and El Salvador. In addition, the extension of the Pacific
monsoon trough is producing scattered moderate convection over
Costa Rica. Of note in the upper levels, a small upper level low
is centered over the SW Caribbean near 14N77W. A tropical
depression or tropical storm could form over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea before it reaches the Yucatan peninsula late Monday
or Tuesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

The tropical wave is W of the island, however residual scattered
showers remain. More scattered showers are expected Sun afternoon
and evening during maximum heating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical low and two tropical waves are over the tropical
Atlantic. See above. Scattered showers linger along the N Florida
coast N of 29N W of 79W. Otherwise, the remainder of the Atlantic
is under the influence of surface highs anchored near 29N70W, and
29N51W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is
centered near 23N61W with upper level diffluence S and W of the
center producing scattered showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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