[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
804 PM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean associated with 1010
mb low near 13N77W. The wave axis extends from 18N77W to the low
center to 10N77W and has been moving at 15 kt within the last 24
hours. The wave is in a region of mostly low to moderate vertical
wind shear, and is underneath upper level divergent flow, which
is supporting numerous heavy showers and scattered tstms from 13N
to 18N between 72W and 76W. Similar convection is over Hispaniola
with the heaviest convection happening over Haiti. Fresh to near
gale force winds was noted in satellite wind data associated with
this system that has a medium chance of becoming a tropical
cyclone during the next 48 hours. Please read the latest NHC
Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20
KNHC for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the central Atlc associated with a 1010 mb
low embedded in the monsoon trough near 09N36W. The wave axis
extends from 17N33W to the low center to 07N37W and has been
moving at 10-15 kt within the last 24 hours. Moderate to strong
vertical wind shear is to the north of the low center where
enhanced satellite imagery continue to show intrusion of Saharan
dry air and dust to the wave environment. These factors are
limiting the convection to scattered heavy showers and isolated
tstms from 09N to 13N between 35W and 42W. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms are also noted E of the wave axis from 13N to 15N
between 31W and 34W.

A tropical wave extends is in the central Atlc with axis
extending from 19N49W to 10N56W, moving W at 5-10 kt. The wave is
in a region of mainly moderate to strong vertical wind shear.
However, abundant moisture at the lower levels and a diffluent
environment aloft support scattered showers within 90 nm either
side of the wave axis.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the African coast near 12N16W to
13N27W to 09N36W to 11N50W. Aside from convection associated with
the tropical waves...scattered heavy showers and tstms are from
07N to 11N between E of 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle to upper level trough is noted on water vapor imagery
over the eastern CONUS with the base of the trough extending over
the NE Gulf waters. Diffluent flow aloft generated by the eastern
periphery of a broad upper ridge anchored over the Baja California
peninsula continue to support scattered to isolated showers over
the northern Gulf waters N of 27N. The convection is forecast to
lift north overnight as the upper trough moves E over W Atlc
waters. Otherwise, a surface ridge extends across the Florida
peninsula to the central Gulf being the support for generally
fair weather conditions and gentle to light southerly flow. Mostly
clear skies and fair conditions are expected to persist with the
ridge remaining in place across the basin through Monday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave with potential of becoming a tropical cyclone
within the next 48 hours moves from the central to the western
basin tonight. Heavy showers, tstms and gusty winds are associated
with this wave. See the special features section for further
details. Heavy showers and tstms associated with the wave extends
north to Hispaniola. In the SW Caribbean, a 1010 mb low is located
near 10N80W, just at the eastern end of the EPAC monsoon trough.
Scattered to isolated showers are being supported by these
features S of 12N. This low is forecast to move NW, possibly
merging with the low associated with the tropical wave. The wave
is expected to bring increased precipitation to Central America
and the Yucatan peninsula late tonight through Tuesday. Looking
ahead, the arrival of a tropical wave is forecast to impact the
Lesser Antilles and surrounding adjacent coastal waters by late
Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing increased probabilities of
convection and strong winds.

...HISPANIOLA...

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean associated with a
1010 mb. The wave is underneath upper level divergent flow, which
is supporting numerous heavy showers and scattered tstms extending
N to Hispaniola...the heaviest convection happening over Haiti.
Fresh to near gale force winds has been noted in satellite wind
data associated with this system that has a medium chance of
becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Showers will
continue to affect the Island during this time.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The Atlc continues under the influence of a surface ridge
anchored by three highs...a 1024 mb high near 28N69W, another
near 29N49W and a third 1024 mb high SW of the Azores. No major
changes expected within the next 2 days.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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