[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
706 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea-
Bissau near 11N15W, to 06N16W and 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from
02N20W, to the Equator along 23W, curving to 03S30W and 03S34W.
Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 03N southward between 46W and 51W. Isolated moderate to
locally strong elsewhere from 07N between Africa and 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE SE U.S.A., ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA, INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND THE NW CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from a South Carolina cyclonic
circulation center, across Florida and the Bahamas and Cuba,
into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, to Jamaica. Upper level
westerly wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico from 80W
westward. A cold front extends from a 1000 mb coastal South
Carolina low pressure center that is near 34N78W, through the NW
Bahamas, across Cuba that passes through 80W, across the Yucatan
Peninsula along 19N, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to
the coast of Mexico near 19N96W. A surface trough is within 200 nm
to the east of the cold front, from 20N to 32N. Convective
precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 22N to 26N
between 67W and 69W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from
Puerto Rico and Hispaniola northward from 62W westward.

A 1012 mb high pressure center is near 26N90W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KBBF, KXIH, KHQI, and KVKY.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR from the Lower Valley to Victoria/Port Lavaca/Palacios.
LOUSIANA: VFR. MISSISSIPPI: MVFR in Pascagoula. ALABAMA: MVFR in
Gulf Shores. FLORIDA: VFR.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow is
accompanying a trough that is moving across Cuba. The cyclonic
wind flow is from 17N northward from Hispaniola westward.
Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea
from 70W eastward. Upper level NW wind flow covers the rest of the
area. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 17N
northward between 67W and Jamaica.

Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 13N to 20N
between 60W and 65W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 25/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.05 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level westerly wind flow is moving across
the island. Hispaniola is on the eastern side of a trough that
extends from a South Carolina cyclonic circulation center to
Jamaica. Rain is being reported at some stations in Hispaniola.
Rainshowers are possible in the surrounding coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1600
feet. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that a trough will be just
to the west of Hispaniola at the start of the 48-hour forecast
period. The trough will move across Hispaniola, and to the east of
Hispaniola. NW wind flow will continue for the rest of the
forecast period, from 12 hours to 18 hours into the overall
48-hour forecast period, until the end of the 48-hour forecast
period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that SW wind flow
will move across Hispaniola for the first 18 hours to 24 hours of
the 48-hour forecast period. Broad anticyclonic wind flow will
move across Hispaniola during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for
700 mb shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during
the first 24 hours of the 48-hour forecast period. An anticyclonic
circulation center, that is in the eastern half of the Caribbean
Sea, is forecast to move toward Hispaniola at the end of day one.
S-to-SW wind flow will cover the first half of day two. Broad
anticyclonic wind flow will span the area at the beginning of the
second half of day two. SE wind flow eventually will cross
Hispaniola during the last 6 hours to 12 hours of the forecast
period.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 16N northward
from 40W eastward, and from 10N northward between 40W and 60W.
A 1006 mb low pressure center is near 36N28W. Surface cyclonic
wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward between
Africa and 43W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to
locally strong from 22N northward between Africa and 30W.
Rainshowers are possible in the remainder of the area that is from
20N northward between Africa and 60W.

A surface ridge is along 08N47W 24N54W to 32N59W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 07N northward
between 45W and 70W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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