[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 AM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 02N21W. The ITCZ is along 02N21W to the
Equator along 30W, to the Equator along 42W, to the coast of
Brazil near 01S45W. Convective precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong from 05N to 08N between 10W and 12W near Liberia
and Sierra Leone. Scattered strong from the Equator southward
between 44W and 49W. Isolated moderate to locally strong elsewhere
from 04N at the Prime Meridian, to 05N15W 05N30W 04N43W 04N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE SE U.S.A., ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA, INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO, AND THE NW CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from a South Carolina cyclonic
circulation center, across Florida and the Bahamas and Cuba,
into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, to 15N80W. Upper level
westerly wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico from 80W
westward. A cold front extends from a 1001 mb South Carolina low
pressure center, through 32N78W, between the NW Bahamas and SE
Florida, across NW Cuba, across the Yucatan Peninsula from 20N
northward, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the coast
of Mexico near 19N96W. A surface trough extends from a 1000 mb low
pressure center that is near 32N76W, curving through 30N75W, to
the Bahamas near 24N75W, to Cuba near 21N79W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
23N to 28N between 68W and 70W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere
from Puerto Rico and Hispaniola northward from 64W westward.

A 1012 mb high pressure center is near 26N95W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KHQI and KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Brownsville and Port Isabelle. LOUSIANA. VFR.
MISSISSIPPI: VFR. ALABAMA: IFR and heavy rain in Gulf Shores.
FLORIDA: VFR.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad middle level to upper level cyclonic wind flow is
accompanying a trough that is moving across Cuba. The cyclonic
wind flow is from 17N northward from Hispaniola westward.
Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Caribbean Sea
from 70W eastward. Upper level NW wind flow covers the rest of the
area. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 17N
northward between 67W and Jamaica.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 25/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.05 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level westerly wind flow is moving across
the island. Hispaniola is on the eastern side of a trough that
extends from a South Carolina cyclonic circulation center to
19N75W.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. earlier
cumulonimbus clouds have disappeared. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC:
Santo Domingo: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. La Romana: MVFR.
ceiling 1600 feet. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata:
VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that a trough will be just
to the west of Hispaniola at the start of the 48-hour forecast
period. The trough will move across Hispaniola, and to the east of
Hispaniola. NW wind flow will continue for the rest of the
forecast period, from 12 hours to 18 hours into the overall
48-hour forecast period, until the end of the 48-hour forecast
period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that SW wind flow
will move across Hispaniola for the first 18 hours to 24 hours of
the 48-hour forecast period. Broad anticyclonic wind flow will
move across Hispaniola during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for
700 mb shows that SW wind flow will move across the area during
the first 24 hours of the 48-hour forecast period. An anticyclonic
circulation center, that is in the eastern half of the Caribbean
Sea, is forecast to move toward Hispaniola at the end of day one.
S-to-SW wind flow will cover the first half of day two. Broad
anticyclonic wind flow will span the area at the beginning of the
second half of day two. SE wind flow eventually will cross
Hispaniola during the last 6 hours to 12 hours of the forecast
period.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 16N northward
from 40W eastward, and from 10N northward between 40W and 60W.
A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 32N34W. Surface cyclonic
wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward between
Africa and 50W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 29N to 32N between 20W and 24W. Isolated
moderate from 24N northward between 24W and 33W. Rainshowers are
possible in the remainder of the area that is from 20N northward
between Africa and 60W.

A surface 1021 mb high pressure center is near 30N60W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 20N northward
between 50W and 70W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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