[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242354
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
753 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 24/1800 UTC a 1004 mb surface low is centered north of the
Bahamas near 31N76W. The pressure gradient between this low and a
high to the east is generating gale-force winds north of 28N
between 72W-76W, with seas to 14 ft. The low is forecast to
quickly lift northward merging with another low currently located
over South Carolina near 33N80W. The gale-force winds will subside
quickly by 25/00Z. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast
product under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC and under the AWIPS
header MIAHSFAT2 for further details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone in
western Africa at 08N13W to 04N23W. The Intertropical Convergence
Zone continues from 04N23W to 00N31W to the coast of Brazil near
03S43W. Scattered showers are observed within 100 nm on either
side of the ITCZ mainly west of 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends over the southern Gulf of Mexico from near
26N82W to 23N86W to 21N94W. THe front becomes stationary from that
point to 19N95W. Isolated showers are observed along these fronts.
A high pressure ridge is building in the wake of the front across
the majority of the basin. Scatterometer data depicts a moderate
to fresh northerly flow across the eastern portion of the basin
north of the front while a light to gentle anticyclonic flow
prevails across the western half of the basin. The cold front
will exit the Gulf waters overnight. Surface ridging will prevail
across the whole area.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 mb low is centered over the coast of north Colombia near
12N74W. A surface trough extends southward into the Caribbean
from central Cuba to near 19N82W. Moderate west winds are noted
in the vicinity of the trough over the Caribbean west of 82W.
Moderate to fresh trade winds are depicted in scatterometer data
across the remainder of the basin east of the trough. Upper-
level subsidence and broad ridging is suppressing convection over
the Caribbean, except for in the vicinity of Hispaniola. In this
area, an upper-level diffluent flow is supporting scattered
showers mainly over Dominican Republic and the Mona Passage.
Little change is expected through the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

An upper-level diffluent flow prevails across the eastern portion
of the island supporting scattered showers over Dominican
Republic. This activity will continue through the evening
hours, then the trough will swing to the northeast and allow the
atmosphere to stabilize on Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale Warning is in effect for the western Atlantic. Please
refer to the section above for details. A cold front enters our
area of discussion near 31N80W to 28N81W. To the east, a 1004 mb
surface low is centered near 31N76W. A surface trough extends from
the low to 23N79W. Scattered moderate convection prevails east of
this low between 64W-73W. A surface ridge prevails tot he east of
these features anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 32N60W. A
1006 mb surface low is centered just north of the area along 48W
but its proximity is enhancing convection mainly north of 28N
between 22W- 30W. A surface ridge prevails in the east Atlantic.
Expect during the next 24 hours for the convection east of the
Bahamas to lift northeast of the discussion area. The cold front
in the west Atlantic will continue moving southeast with showers.
The low in the east-central Atlantic will enter the area enhancing
convection.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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