[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241726
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
126 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 24/1200 UTC a 1005 mb surface low is centered N of the Bahamas
near 29.5N76.5W. The pressure gradient between this low and a
high to the east is expected to generate gale force southeast
winds from 28N to 31N between 72W and 75W, with seas to 13 ft. The
low is forecast to quickly lift northward, which will allow gale
force winds to subside over the forecast waters this evening.
Please see the latest High Seas Forecast product under the WMO
header FZNT02 KNHC and under the AWIPS header MIAHSFAT2 for
further details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends SW from the coast of Sierra Leone in
western Africa at 08N13W to 03N20W. The Intertropical Convergence
Zone continues from 03N20W to 02S39W to the coast of Brazil in
South America near 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed from 01N to 05N between 11W and 18W and also from 03S to
03N between 37W and 46W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 24/1200 UTC a cold front extends over Gulf of Mexico from
near Ft Myers Florida at 27N82.5W to 23N86W to 20N95W to the coast
of Mexico adjacent to the Bay of Campeche near 18.5N95W. No deep
convection is associated with the front over the Gulf of Mexico.
Only a narrow band of shallow cloudiness attends the front. Broken
to overcast stratocumulus ceilings covered the Gulf to the lee of
the front N of 26N E of 88W. Moderate to Fresh N to NE winds are
prevalent over the Gulf to the N of the front, with moderate W
winds ahead of the front over the SE Gulf. An upper level trough
is aligned with the Florida Peninsula. Strong subsidence to the
west of the trough covers the entire Gulf. The cold front will
exit to the SE of the Gulf by Tuesday morning. A 1013 Mb high will
quickly shift eastward over the central Gulf on Tuesday and set
up moderate to fresh SE to S return flow over the Western Gulf by
Tuesday evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 mb low is centered just off the coast of N Colombia near
11.5N73.5W. A surface trough extends southward into the Caribbean
from Western Cuba to near 20N82W. Moderate west winds are noted in
the vicinity of the trough over the Caribbean west of 82W.
Moderate to fresh trade winds are seen over the caribbean east of
the trough. An upper- level trough extends southward from Western
Cuba over the Western Caribbean to just N of Panama. Upper-level
subsidence west of the trough and broad ridging east of the trough
is suppressing convection over the Caribbean, except for in the
vicinity of Hispaniola.

...HISPANIOLA...

The upper-level trough moving eastward from Cuba is producing
upper-level divergence over Hispaniola. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms can be expected over the island through
tonight, then the trough will swing to the NE and allow the
atmosphere to stabilize on Tuesday. Expect the heaviest convection
to favor the afternoon and evening hours, during the time of
maximum heating.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough curves SSE from a surface low centered near
29.5N76.5W to the central coast of Cuba. Low-level convergence
east of the trough is supporting scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms north-northwestward from Hispaniola over the far SE
Bahamas to east of Florida between 70W and 75W. Expect during the
next 24 hours for the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
over and east of the Bahamas to lift NE of the discussion area. A
1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N60W. The
high is expected to dissipate during the next 24 hours. The tail
end of a dissipating cold front is over the central Atlantic from
31N29W to 29N32W. No organized convection is associated with this
feature. A 1019 mb high is centered just N of the Canary Islands
near 30N17W. A large upper- level low remains centered over the E
Atlantic near 33N31W. Upper- level divergence on the east side of
the low is producing isolated thunderstorms in the SE quadrant of
the low up to 600 nm SE of the low center.

For additional information please
visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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