[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Mon Apr 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Strong high pressure over the SW N Atlantic tightens the gradient
behind a cold front extending from 30N40W to 21N47W to 19N58W,
thus supporting gale force winds N of 28N between 45W and 55W with
seas from 17 to 28 ft. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale
by Monday night. Please refer to the high seas forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the E tropical Atlc near
06N11W and continues to 03N16W. The Intertropical Convergence
Zone continues from 03N16W to 0N30W to 1S45W. Scattered to
isolated moderate convection and tstms are from 2S to 4N W of 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad surface high pressure anchored by a 1026 mb high over SW N
Atlc waters extends a ridge axis SW across the Florida peninsula
and Gulf of Mexico. This is supporting gentle to moderate
easterly-southeasterly flow across the basin according to latest
surface and scatterometer data, except in the E Bay of Campeche
where a surface trough in the Yucatan Peninsula enhances the winds
to fresh. Water vapor imagery show a middle to upper level short-
wave trough which is supporting cloudiness and scattered to
isolated showers over the W basin W of 93W. Cira LPW imagery show
shallow moisture in the SE basin being advected from the Caribbean
supporting cloudiness and possible isolated showers in that
region. No major changes are expected through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure over SW N
Atlantic waters and lower pressure over northern Colombia
supports fresh to strong winds from 11N to 14N between 73W and
77W. Fresh to strong winds funnel across the Windward Passage
tonight due to the high pressure N of the area. The area of high
pressure is forecast to weaken by Monday night, thus acting to
reduce the winds and seas. Water Vapor and CIRA LPW imagery
continue to show very stable conditions over the NW Caribbean
while SW winds aloft advects moisture from South America and the
EPAC to the eastern basin. All this moisture is supporting showers
E of 74W, including southern Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and
Hispaniola. Shower activity for this region and Hispaniola is
expected through Tuesday. An upper level trough over portions of
Central America along with abundant low level moisture supports
scattered heavy showers and tstms within 150 nm off the coast of
Costa Rica and Nicaragua. Model guidance indicate that convection
in this region will prevail through Monday night.

...HISPANIOLA...

Trailing moisture associated with the passage of a former cold
front N of the Island and tropical Atlc moisture moving across the
Caribbean support cloudiness across the Island as well as isolated
showers and tstms. Model guidance indicate the continuation of
these showers through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 986 mb center of low pressure N of
the area near 33N47W and continues to 30N40W to 21N47W to 19N58W.
A strong pressure gradient between a high in the SW N Atlc and
the front supports gale force winds N of 29N. See the special
features section for further details. Otherwise, a 1009 mb low
is near 26N18W with associated trough extending SE to 22N16W.
There is no shower activity associated with the low.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Ramos
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