[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170002
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
802 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

An Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N42W to 21N51W.
Expect W-to-NW gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from 16
feet to 25 feet, to the N of 29N to the W of the cold front to
56W. Expect gale-force winds near the same cold front for the
24-hour forecast. Please refer to the high seas forecast under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 34N47W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward
between 40W and 65W. A 986 mb low pressure center is near 34N48W.
Expect hurricane-force winds, and sea heights ranging from 24 feet
to 37 feet, between 120 nm and 240 nm in the W semicircle, and
120 nm and 180 nm remaining SW quadrant. A cold front passes
through 32N41W to 25N44W, to 22N50W, and 20N68W. A surface trough
is within 180 nm to 210 nm to the SE of the cold front between 43W
and 55W. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 24N northward between 36W and 41W. Rainshowers
are possible elsewhere from 20N northward between 41W and 80W.
Please refer to the high seas forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers
HSFAT1/FZNT01 KWBC for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 07N12W to 02N16W. The ITCZ continues from 02N16W, to
01N30W, to the Equator along 39W, to coastal Brazil near 46W.
Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong from
06N10W 05N40W 07N58W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
High level moisture is moving across the Gulf of Mexico with the
upper level wind flow.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico.
A surface ridge extends from the Florida Panhandle to the coast of
Mexico near 20N97W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KBBF, KHQI, KGBK, and KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR in Weslaco, at the Corpus Christi NAS, in Rockport,
Palacios. earlier thunderstorms in Conroe and Tomball have ended
for the moment. LOUISIANA: earlier thunderstorms in New Iberia
have ended for the moment. light rain in Baton Rouge. MVFR in
Slidell. rain is being observed on the southern side of Lake
Pontchartrain. MISSISSIPPI: heavy rain in McComb and IFR. MVFR
in Biloxi and Pascagoula. ALABAMA: MVFR in Gulf Shores. FLORIDA:
MVFR in the Pensacola metropolitan area. light rain in Milton.
MVFR from Mary Esther to Valparaiso to Destin.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level SW wind flow covers the area that is to the east of
the line that runs from the central part of Belize beyond SE
Cuba. Upper level westerly wind flow covers the rest of the
Caribbean Sea.

Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong from 15N from 80W westward. scattered strong in Colombia
from 06N to 11N between 72W and the border with Panama near 77W/
78W. isolated moderate elsewhere from 18N southward from 80W
eastward. Isolated moderate in SE Cuba. rainshowers were observed
earlier in Hispaniola, and in parts of Puerto Rico.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 16/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC: 1.06 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level SW wind flow is crossing Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo: VFR. earlier
nearby rainshowers have ended for the moment. La Romana:
VFR. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. ceiling 2200 feet. Puerto
Plata: light rain. MVFR. ceiling 1800 feet.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will
cover the area for the entire time. A trough will be to the west
of Hispaniola for part of the time. The trough eventually
dissipates. A ridge develops from the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea, extending northwestward. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb
shows that day one will consist of W-to-SW wind flow. Expect SW
wind flow during day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows
that anticyclonic wind flow will be moving across Hispaniola. A
ridge will extend from the east central Caribbean Sea islands to
Hispaniola during the next 48 hours.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Surface anticyclonic wind flow is to the west of the 32N41W
25N44W 22N50W 20N68W cold front. A 1028 mb high pressure center is
near 32N68W. A ridge extends from the 1028 mb high pressure center
into southern Georgia, and to central Louisiana.

A middle level to upper level eastern Atlantic Ocean trough
passes through 32N20W to 22N25W and 12N25W. A 1009 mb low pressure
center is near 27N19W. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are
possible from 20N northward between 20W and 34W. A surface ridge
extends from a 1019 mb high pressure center that is near 31N31W to
20N36W and 09N45W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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