[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102320
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
720 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
04N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 04N18W
to a 1008 mb low near 01S27W to the South American coast near
03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N-04N between
21W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1014 mb low is centered over central Texas near 33N97W with a
cold front extending W to W Texas near 31N104W. Scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm of the low.
Elsewhere, a 1029 mb high is centered well off the coast of North
Carolina near 37N67W. 10-20 kt E to SE surface return flow is
over the Gulf of Mexico with strongest winds over the Straits of
Florida. Radar imagery shows isolated showers over S Florida and
surrounding waters moving W. The remainder of the Gulf is void of
precipitation. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf of
Mexico with axis along 90W. Strong subsidence is over the entire
Gulf. Expect over the next 24 hours for the cold front over Texas
to drift E and remain inland. Expect little change over the Gulf
of Mexico for the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with the weakest
winds S of Hispaniola, and the strongest winds along the coast of
Colombia. A surface trough is over Puerto Rico along 67W producing
scattered showers. Radar imagery shows the showers also reaching
the Virgin Islands. Similar showers are over all of the Leeward
Islands N of 15N. Elsewhere, scattered showers are over N
Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, N Nicaragua, E Honduras, Jamaica,
and Hispaniola. In the upper levels, an upper level trough is
over the Caribbean Sea with axis along 75W. Upper level moisture
is over N Colombia and Venezuela. Strong subsidence is over the
remainder of the Caribbean. Expect over the next 24 hours for the
NE Caribbean to continue to have scattered showers due to the
tail end of a quasi- stationary front over the W Atlantic.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola due to the tail
end of a quasi-stationary front over the W Atlantic. Expect little
change over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A quasi-stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N58W to
27N66W to the Turks and Caicos Islands near 21N72W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 21N-30N between 60W-68W. Scattered
showers prevail within 90 nm of remainder of the front. Further
east, a deep layered low is located over the E Atlantic near
35N27W. A surface trough extends from 31N24W to 26N30W. Scattered
showers are within 120 nm of the trough. Of note in the upper
levels, an upper level trough is over the E Atlantic N of 25N
between 60W-80W. An upper level ridge is N of 20N between 40W-60W.
A large upper level low is located over the E Atlantic near
35N27W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the E Atlantic front to
remain quasi-stationary with continued scattered moderate
convection and scattered showers. Also expect the E Atlantic
trough to move E towards the Cape Verde Islands.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net