[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101707
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
107 PM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N16W to
03N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
03N19W to the Equator near 24W. Scattered moderate convection is S
of 06N between 08W-13WW. Isolated moderate convection is S of 06N
between 18W-29W...and S of 04N between 48W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Dry and stable NW flow aloft prevails over the Gulf basin this
afternoon. At the surface...the southwestern periphery of a
surface ridge provides overall fair conditions and mostly clear
skies. The ridge is anchored by a 1028 mb high centered offshore
of the mid-Atlc near 38N66W with mostly moderate to fresh E-SE
winds noted on recent observations...buoys...and ship reports.
This wind profile across the basin is expected to persist through
Wednesday. By Wednesday...a weak frontal boundary is forecast to
skirt the Gulf coastal plain and move across the SE CONUS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over the
western Caribbean. While the supporting stationary front remains
analyzed across the SW North Atlc to the north of Hispaniola and
Puerto Rico...isolated showers continue within low-level moisture
convergence across the NE Caribbean and portions of Hispaniola
this afternoon. This activity is generally N of 13N between 63W-
66W and N of 19N across the northern coastal area of Hispaniola.
Otherwise...the remainder of the Caribbean remains under
relatively tranquil conditions and mostly clear skies with gentle
to moderate trades. Occasional fresh trades are expected during
the overnight hours within close proximity to the coast of
Colombia and in the lee of Cuba.

...HISPANIOLA...
Southwesterly flow aloft prevails over the island this afternoon
with isolated shower activity occurring along the northern coast
and within the northern adjacent coastal waters from 19N-23N
between 67W-72W. This convection lies primarily to the SE of a
stationary front extending from 25N66W across the Turks and
Caicos Islands to near 21N73W. The front will linger across the
region this evening and begin to gradually drift westward Tuesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough axis extends from north of the
discussion area near 38N58W SW through 32N67W to a vigorous
shortwave trough in the vicinity of 23N71W. This troughing
supports a stationary front analyzed from 32N58W to 25N67W to
21N73W. Scattered showers and tstms are occurring from 20N-32N
between 55W-70W. To the W...a surface ridge continues its
influence across the SW North Atlc anchored by a 1028 mb high
centered offshore of the mid-Atlc near 38N66W. Farther east...
surface ridging also prevails across the central Atlc with a ridge
axis extending from 32N45W to 16N56W. Embedded within the
southern periphery of this ridging a surface trough extends from
17N38W to 24N37W and is a reflection of an upper level low
centered near 22N35W. Isolated showers and tstms are occurring
from 20N-24N between 31W-36W. Lastly...the eastern Atlc is under
the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high
centered near 25N24W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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