[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100727 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
325 AM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017

CORRECTION FOR FORMATTING

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W to 04N15W and 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W,
to the Equator along 21W, and 03SN26W, 03S35W, 02S40W, to 02S45W
at the coast of Brazil. Convective precipitation: numerous strong
from 04N southward between 04W and 09W. scattered strong from 03N
southward between 48W and 51W. widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 07N southward between 14W and 18W. isolated
moderate from 05N southward between 20W and 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
92W eastward. Part of the NW wind flow that is in this area is
related to the Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough.

Upper level NW wind flow covers the area that is from 92W
westward.

A surface trough extends from 28N82W in Florida, to 25N83W.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 25N to
27N between Florida and 85W.

A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico
to the coast of Mexico near 20N96W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KBBF.

MVFR: KHHV, KVQT, and KGBK.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR from the Lower Valley/the Deep South to Bay City.
light rain in Bay City, and at the Houston Hobby Airport.
from LOUISIANA to FLORIDA: VFR.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD, INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level to upper level trough passes through 32N69W in the
Atlantic Ocean, to 26N71W, across SE Cuba, to NE Nicaragua, and
to NW Costa Rica. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is
apparent in water vapor imagery, to the west of the line that
passes through 32N62W to SE Cuba, and in much of the Caribbean
Sea. High level clouds are moving NE, across the open waters of
the Caribbean Sea, from Nicaragua eastward. A stationary front
passes through 32N58W to 27N64W, to 24N67W in the Atlantic
Ocean, skirting the SE Bahamas, and to SE Cuba. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 210 nm on either
side of the line that runs from central Hispaniola to 25N65W,
beyond 32N56W.

An upper level trough passes through SE Cuba to NE Nicaragua.
Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow is to the west of the
trough. Upper level SW wind flow is to the east of the trough.
Rainshowers are possible, in scattered to broken low level
clouds, to the east of the middle level-to-upper level trough.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 10/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.03 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level SW wind flow is moving across the
island. A stationary front passes through 24N67W in the Atlantic
Ocean, skirting the SE Bahamas, to SE Cuba. Rain is being
reported inland. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the
coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling
1500 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. earlier rain has ended for
the moment. La Romana: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Punta Cana:
VFR.
Santiago: rain. MVFR. ceiling 1200 feet. Puerto Plata: light
rain. MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will
cover the area for the first 36 hours or so. Expect W wind flow
during the rest of the forecast period. An upper level trough
will be extending from the central Bahamas to Nicaragua. The
trough will move eastward, and then it will split. The
comparatively more northern part of the trough will move
eastward in the Atlantic Ocean. The comparatively more southern
part of the trough will move eastward, toward Hispaniola. The
trough will flatten out, giving the westerly wind flow across
the area for the last part of the forecast period. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 500 mb shows that generally W wind flow will be
moving across the area during the next 48 hours. A trough will
span the area between Hispaniola and Cuba during the entire
time. Slight variations in the wind direction will be possible,
sometimes from the SW, the W, or from the NW. The GFS MODEL
forecast for 700 mb shows that a broad inverted trough will move
across the area at the start of the 48-hour forecast period.
Broad and weak cyclonic wind flow will cover the area during the
entire time.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N23W, to a 22N37W cyclonic
circulation center, to 10N41W. A surface trough extends from a
1015 mb low pressure center that is near 24N38W, to 19N36W. A
surface trough continues from the 1015 mb low pressure center to
20N37W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 20N to
25N between 30W and 38W.

A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 26N25W. A surface ridge
passes through 32N48W to 23N51W 16N53W and 08N57W. A surface
ridge passes through 32N75W to the NW Bahamas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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