[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 100604
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 AM EDT Mon Apr 10 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 09N13W to 04N15W and 02N18W. The ITCZ continues from 02N18W,
to the Equator along 21W, and 03SN26W, 03S35W, 02S40W, to 02S45W
at the coast of Brazil. Convective precipitation: numerous strong
from 04N southward between 04W and 09W. scattered strong from 03N
southward between 48W and 51W. widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong from 07N southward between 14W and 18W. isolated
moderate from 05N southward between 20W and 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
92W eastward. Part of the NW wind flow that is in this area is
related to the Atlantic Ocean-to-Caribbean Sea trough.

Upper level NW wind flow covers the area that is from 92W
westward.

A surface trough extends from 28N82W in Florida, to 25N83W.
Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 25N to 27N
between Florida and 85W.

A surface ridge extends from the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico
to the coast of Mexico near 20N96W.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KBBF.

MVFR: KHHV, KVQT, and KGBK.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: MVFR from the Lower Valley/the Deep South to Bay City.
light rain in Bay City, and at the Houston Hobby Airport.
from LOUISIANA to FLORIDA: VFR.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 60W WESTWARD, INTO THE WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA, INCLUDING THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level to upper level trough passes through 32N69W in the
Atlantic Ocean, to 26N71W, across SE Cuba, to NE Nicaragua, and to
NW Costa Rica. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent
in water vapor imagery, to the west of the line that passes
through 32N62W to SE Cuba, and in much of the Caribbean Sea. High
level clouds are moving NE, across the open waters of the
Caribbean Sea, from Nicaragua eastward. A stationary front passes
through 32N58W to 27N64W, to 24N67W in the Atlantic Ocean,
skirting the SE Bahamas, and to SE Cuba. Convective
precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 210 nm on either
side of the line that runs from central Hispaniola to 25N65W,
beyond 32N56W.

An upper level trough passes through SE Cuba to NE Nicaragua.
Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow is to the west of the
trough. Upper level SW wind flow is to the east of the trough.
Rainshowers are possible, in scattered to broken low level
clouds, to the east of the middle level-to-upper level trough.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 10/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.03 in
Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level SW wind flow is moving across the
island. A stationary front passes through 24N67W in the Atlantic
Ocean, skirting the SE Bahamas, to SE Cuba. Rain is being reported
inland. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo: MVFR. ceiling
1500 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds. earlier rain has ended for the
moment. La Romana: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Punta Cana: VFR.
Santiago: rain. MVFR. ceiling 1200 feet. Puerto Plata: light rain.
MVFR. ceiling 1600 feet. few cumulonimbus clouds.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will
cover the area for the first 36 hours or so. Expect W wind flow
during the rest of the forecast period. An upper level trough will
be extending from the central Bahamas to Nicaragua. The trough
will move eastward, and then it will split. The comparatively more
northern part of the trough will move eastward in the Atlantic
Ocean. The comparatively more southern part of the trough will
move eastward, toward Hispaniola. The trough will flatten out,
giving the westerly wind flow across the area for the last part of
the forecast period. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that
generally W wind flow will be moving across the area during the
next 48 hours. A trough will span the area between Hispaniola and
Cuba during the entire time. Slight variations in the wind
direction will be possible, sometimes from the SW, the W, or from
the NW. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that a broad
inverted trough will move across the area at the start of the
48-hour forecast period. Broad and weak cyclonic wind flow will
cover the area during the entire time.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough passes through 32N23W, to a 22N37W cyclonic
circulation center, to 10N41W. A surface trough extends from a
1015 mb low pressure center that is near 24N38W, to 19N36W. A
surface trough continues from the 1015 mb low pressure center to
20N37W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 20N to
25N between 30W and 38W.

A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 26N25W. A surface ridge
passes through 32N48W to 23N51W 16N53W and 08N57W. A surface ridge
passes through 32N75W to the NW Bahamas.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT



...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
04N12W to 01N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues
from 01N20W to 03S25W to 01S40W to the South American coast near
02S45W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is along the
Monsoon trough from 01N-05N between 10W-16W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1025 mb high is centered off the coast of South Carolina near
33N77W. 10-15 kt E to SE surface flow is over the Gulf of Mexico.
Radar imagery shows the Gulf is void of precipitation. In the
upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along
90W. Strong subsidence is over the entire Gulf. Expect little
change over the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with the weakest
winds S of Hispaniola, and the strongest winds along the coast of
Colombia. Isolated moderate convection is over N Colombia. More
isolated moderate convection is over the Yucatan Peninsula, E
Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola. Scattered showers are over E
Panama, Costa Rica, N Nicaragua, and E Honduras. More scattered
showers are over Puerto Rico,and the Leeward Islands. In the
upper levels, zonal flow is over the Caribbean Sea. Upper level
moisture is over E Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and N Colombia.
Strong subsidence is over the remainder of the Caribbean. Expect
over the next 24 hours for the NE Caribbean to continue to have
isolated moderate convection and scattered showers due to the tail
end of a quasi-stationary front over the W Atlantic.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently isolated moderate convection and scattered showers are
over Hispaniola due to the tail end of a quasi-stationary front
over the W Atlantic. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A quasi-stationary front is over the W Atlantic from 31N60W to
22N70W to E Cuba near 20N76W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm E of front N of 28N. Scattered showers prevail
within 120 nm of remainder of the front. Further east, a 1015 mb
surface low is located over the E Atlantic near 24N37W. Scattered
showers are from 23N-26N between 30W-38W. The tail end of a
dissipating stationary front is also over the E Atlantic from
31N23W to 29N25W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front.
Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the E
Atlantic N of 25N between 60W-80W. A large upper level low is
located over the E Atlantic near 23N36W. Expect over the next 24
hours for the E Atlantic front to remain quasi-stationary with
continued scattered moderate convection and scattered showers.
Also expect the E Atlantic front to fully dissipate S of 31N.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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