[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081703
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
103 PM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N04W to
01N18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from a
1011 mb equatorial low near 28W to 05N40W to 01N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is S of 06N between 07W-28W. Isolated moderate
convection is S from 01N-06N between 31W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
West-northwesterly middle to upper level flow prevails over the
Gulf basin this afternoon supporting mostly fair conditions
associated with a surface ridge. The ridge is anchored by a 1022
mb high centered across southwestern Alabama and extends a ridge
axis S-SW to the Mexico coast near Tuxpan. Within the southern
periphery of the ridge generally S of 23N W of 87W...lingering
overcast skies and isolated showers are occurring in the vicinity
of a surface trough from 22N92W to 18N93W. The remainder of the
basin is under the influence of the ridge with mostly clear skies
and light to gentle anticyclonic winds. By tonight...moderate to
fresh E-SE winds are forecast to re-establish across the western
Gulf waters ahead of the next frontal boundary expected to stall
across the coastal plains by Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Subtle upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over
the central Caribbean in support of a dissipating cold front
extending from eastern Cuba to near Grand Cayman. Most active
convection is occurring NE of Cuba in association with the
front...however isolated showers are possible across eastern Cuba
and the Windward Passage region this afternoon and evening. A
pre-frontal surface trough extends across portions of western
Hispaniola and is expected to provide further focus for isolated
afternoon showers and tstms. Otherwise...the remainder of the
Caribbean remains under relatively tranquil conditions with the
largest impact being fresh to occasional strong E-NE winds within
close proximity to the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere...moderate to
occasional fresh trades prevail and will persist through the
weekend into Monday.

...HISPANIOLA...
Strong subsidence remains in place aloft providing overall stable
conditions and fair weather across the island...however a cold
front is analyzed to the NW of the island across a portion of the
SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Cloudiness and probability of
isolated showers and tstms are expected to increase during the
next couple of days as the front moves closer to the island by
Sunday. On Sunday...the front will stall and begin to gradually
weaken...becoming diffuse on Monday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level low is centered offshore of the New
England states near 44N69W this afternoon with the associated
troughing dipping southward over portions of the SW North Atlc
waters generally N of 28N. The troughing supports a cold front
analyzed into the discussion area near 32N62W SW to the SE
Bahamas then across eastern Cuba near 21N76W and into the NW
Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and widely scattered tstms are
occurring N of 22N within 120 nm either side of the front. The
front is expected to move E through Sunday and stall generally
from 32N60W to across Hispaniola. Farther east...aside from
ridging across the central Atlc anchored by a 1021 mb high
centered near 30N53W...a middle to upper level low is centered
near 25N38W supporting a 1014 mb low centered near 24N35W. A
stationary front meanders into the low from 32N23W to 29N25W to
27N32W with a surface trough extending S-SW from the low to
20N38W. Scattered showers and widely scattered tstms are
occurring from 24N-29N between 29W-38W. Other isolated showers are
possible within 75 nm either side of the stationary front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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