[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081054
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
654 AM EDT Sat Apr 8 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W, to 05N16W, and curving to the Equator along
24W. The ITCZ continues from the Equator along 24W, to 01S30W,
and 02S38W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong from 10N southward from 55W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

Middle level to upper level NW wind flow covers the northern half
of the Gulf of Mexico. This wind flow is related to a deep-layer
trough that is along the Eastern coast of the U.S.A. from Florida
northward.

Upper level W-to-NW wind flow covers the rest of the area. The
upper level wind flow is pushing high level moisture from Mexico
across the open Gulf waters to the Straits of Florida.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. A 1021 mb
high pressure center is near 28N93W in the NW corner of the area.
One ridge extends from the 1022 mb high center toward Florida and
Cuba. A second ridge extends from the 1022 mb high center into the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KIKT and KVOA.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

from TEXAS to ALABAMA: VFR. FLORIDA: MVFR at the Tampa Executive
Airport.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A middle level to upper level trough passes across SE Cuba to
14N78W. Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow is to the west of
the trough. Upper level SW wind flow covers the area that is to
the east of the trough. The wind flow from 350 mb to 800 mb is
from the E from 70W eastward.

Rainshowers are possible, in scattered to broken low level clouds,
from 13N northward from 72W eastward, and between 72W and 85W.

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended
at 08/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.08 in Guadeloupe.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level SW wind flow is moving across the
island. A cold front passes through 23N74W in the Bahamas, across
SE Cuba to 19N81W in the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is within
90 nm to 120 nm to the E/SE of the cold front, from 17N to 23N.
Rainshowers are possible inland, and in the coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR for
visibility. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Santo Domingo: VFR. La
Romana: VFR. Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: VFR. Puerto Plata: VFR.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that SW wind flow will
cover the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL forecast
for 500 mb shows that NW wind flow will be moving across the area
at the start of the 48-hour forecast period, with a trough in the
Mona Passage. The wind flow will shift and be from the W, and then
from the SW, and it will continue from the SW during the rest of
forecast period, from the end of day one and during all of day
two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that broad and weak
anticyclonic wind flow will cover the area during the next 48
hours.

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep-layer trough is along the Eastern coast of the U.S.A. from
Florida northward. Cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
from Cuba northward from 60W westward. The trough is supporting a
cold front that passes through 32N64W just to the east of Bermuda,
to 26N70W, across the Bahamas near 22N74W, across SE Cuba, to
18N80W in the Caribbean Sea. A surface trough is along 72W/73W
from 15N in the Caribbean Sea to 22N in the SE Bahamas. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
within 60 nm to the east of the line that passes through 32N64W
28N67W 23N72W.

A mean upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N38W.
Cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 13N northward
between 30W and 51W. A stationary front is along 30N27W 26N32W, to
a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 24N38W. A surface
trough continues from the 1015 mb low pressure center to 20N39W
and 17N42W. A 1019 mb low pressure is near 32N45W. Convective
precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from
21N to 28N between 30W and 40W.

A surface ridge is along 20N69W 25N61W beyond 32N53W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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