[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 072329
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
729 PM EDT Fri Apr 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N12W to
02N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from 01S16W to
01N35W to 00N47W. Isolated showers are observed within 100 nm on
either side of the ITCZ between 20W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

West-northwesterly mid to upper-level flow prevails over the Gulf
basin. Surface ridging remains in control across the basin
anchored by a 1025 mb high centered across northern Louisiana.
Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds are depicted in scatterometer
data across the Gulf waters. These conditions will persist
through the overnight into Saturday. By Saturday night, moderate
to fresh southeast winds are forecast to re-establish across the
western Gulf waters ahead of the next frontal boundary expected to
stall across the coastal plains next week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad mid to upper-level troughing is noted on water vapor
imagery over the western Caribbean in support of a weakening
frontal boundary that extends from central Cuba as a cold front
from 22N79W to 20N81W, then as stationary front from that point
to 20N85W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 20N77W to 17N82W.
Scattered showers are observed along and near the trough mainly
north of 18N affecting portions of eastern Cuba and west Jamaica. The
remainder of the Caribbean remains under relatively tranquil
conditions, with the largest impact being strong to near-gale
trades within close proximity to the coast of Colombia. These
conditions will pulse through late Saturday night into early
Sunday. Moderate to occasional fresh trade prevail elsewhere and
will persist through the weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...

Strong subsidence remains in place aloft providing overall stable
conditions and fair weather across the island. A cold front and
associated pre-frontal surface trough are approaching the island
from the west. These features will support showers across the
island through the next 24-48 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level low is centered over the New England states
with the associated troughing dipping southward over the mid-
Atlantic coast and southeast CONUS. The troughing supports a cold
front analyzed into the discussion area near 31N70W to 22N78W.
Scattered showers are occurring along and east of the front mainly N
of 26N between 65W-71W. To the east, a 1022 mb surface high is
centered near 28N56W. A 1015 mb surface low is located near
24N40W. A stationary front extends northeast from the low to
24N35W to 31N26W. A surface trough extends southwest from the low
to 16N48W. Scattered showers prevail within 100 nm near the low.
Another surface low is centered near 32N43W and extends its cold
front from the low to 29N45W to 30N51W. A pre-frontal trough is
from 29N42W to 27N45W to 26N49W. Expect for the cold front over
the west Atlantic to keep moving east with convection. The
features over the central and east Atlantic will dissipate.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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