[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071713
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
113 PM EDT Fri Apr 7 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 05N09W to
02N15W to 02N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends
from 01N23W to 02N40W to the Equator near 45W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 03N-08N between 11W-16W. Isolated moderate
convection is from 03N-06N between 02W-06W...S of 05N between
26W-35W...and from 03N-07N between 49W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
West-northwesterly middle to upper level flow prevails over the
Gulf basin this afternoon. While the remnants of a cold front
extend across the northern Yucatan peninsula and far eastern Bay
of Campeche...lingering overcast skies and isolated shower
activity is noted across the southern Gulf waters S of 23N
between 80W-95W. Otherwise...surface ridging remains in control
across the remainder of the basin anchored by a 1025 mb high
centered across Arkansas. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds are
occurring and expected to persist through the overnight into
Saturday. By Saturday night...moderate to fresh E-SE winds are
forecast to re-establish across the western Gulf waters ahead of
the next frontal boundary expected to stall across the coastal
plains by Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Broad middle to upper level troughing is noted on water vapor
imagery over the western Caribbean in support of a weakening cold
front extending from central Cuba near 22N80W W-SW to the NE tip
of the Yucatan peninsula. Most active convection is occurring NE
of Cuba in association with the front...however isolated showers
are possible across western Cuba...the Yucatan Channel region...
and northern Yucatan peninsula. A pre-frontal surface trough
extends across eastern Cuba near 21N78W to W of Jamaica near
18N79W. Low-level moisture convergence focused in the vicinity of
the surface trough is generating isolated showers and tstms N of
17N between 74W-82W. Otherwise...the remainder of the Caribbean
remains under relatively tranquil conditions with the largest
impact being strong to near gale trades within close proximity to
the coast of Colombia. These conditions will pulse through late
Saturday night into early Sunday. Elsewhere...moderate to
occasional fresh trade prevail and will persist through the
weekend.

...HISPANIOLA...
Strong subsidence remains in place aloft providing overall stable
conditions and fair weather across the island...however a cold
front and associated pre-frontal surface trough are analyzed to
the NW of the island across a portion of the Bahamas and Cuba.
Cloudiness and probability of scattered showers and tstms are
expected to increase during the next few days as the front moves
across the island by Sunday. On Sunday...the front will stall and
begin gradually weakening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level low is centered over the New England
states this afternoon with the associated troughing dipping
southward over the mid-Atlc coast and SE CONUS. The troughing
supports a cold front analyzed into the discussion area near
32N69W SW to the central Bahamas then across central Cuba near
22N80W and into the NW Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers and widely
scattered tstms are occurring N of 27N within 120 nm either side
of the front...with isolated showers and tstms occurring S of 27N
within 90 nm either side of the front. The front is expected tomove E through Sunday and stall generally from 32N58W to across
Hispaniola. Farther east...aside from a small area of high
pressure focused on a 1022 mb high near 29N57W...a middle to upper
level low is centered near 30N42W supporting a 1013 mb low
centered near 34N43W. The associated cold front extends SW from
the low to 31N45W to 32N52W. In addition...a surface trough
extends generally S-SW from the low to 30N43W to 27N49W with
isolated showers and tstms occurring with this low N of 26N
between 40W-48W. To the SE...another weak surface low is analyzed
at 1017 mb and centered near 23N40W. The low is found on the SW
end of a stationary front extending from 32N25W to the low.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms are possible within 150 nm N
of the front and within 75 nm S of the front.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN

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