[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060522
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
121 AM EDT Thu Apr 6 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
05N24W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from
05N24W to 03N40W to the South American coast near 00N50W. Widely
scattered moderate convection is located within 90 nm either side
of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 06/0300 UTC, a cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle
near 31N86W to 24N90W to the Bay of Campeche near 19N95W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm E of front N of 26N.
The remainder of the front is void of precipitation. 20-30 kt
northerly winds are W of front with strongest winds in the Bay of
Campeche. 10-15 kt southerly return flow is E of front. In the
upper levels, a trough is over the Gulf of Mexico with axis along
90W. Upper level diffluence over N Florida is enhancing convection.
Expect in 24 hours for the front to extend from the Florida Keys
to the Yucatan Peninsula with convection.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-30 kt trade winds are over the Caribbean Sea with the weakest
winds over the Leeward Islands, and the strongest winds along the
coast of Colombia. A surface trough is over the Yucatan Peninsula
from 22N89W to 16N91W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60
nm of the trough. Scattered showers are over N Colombia, Panama,
Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras. Mostly fair weather is over
the Caribbean Sea. In the upper levels, an upper level ridge is
over the Caribbean with axis along 75W. Strong subsidence is over
most of the Caribbean Sea. Expect more convection to be over the
Yucatan Peninsula due to prefrontal activity. Also expect scattered
showers to advect over Hispaniola and Cuba over the next 24
hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Presently scattered showers are over Haiti. Very strong
subsidence is also aloft suppressing thunderstorm activity. Expect
low level scattered showers, embedded in the tradewind flow, to
advect over Hispaniola for the next 24 hours.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is along the coast of N Florida
from 28N-31N between 77W-80W. A 1025 mb high is centered over the
W Atlantic near 28N58W. A cold front is over the central Atlantic
from 31N32W to 22N41W. Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the
front. Surface ridging is over the E Atlantic N of 25N and E of
25W. Expect a cold front to be over the W Atlantic in 24 hours
from 31N74W to the Florida Keys with convection. Also expect the
central Atlantic cold front to move E and reach 31N27W in 24
hours with showers.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

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