[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 052333
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 08N13W to
03N20W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis continues from
03N20W to 02N30W to just north of the coast of Brazil near
01S46W.  Scattered moderate convection is located within 90 nm
either side of a line from 03N20W to 04N34W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A middle/upper level trough is moving rapidly eastward into the
western Gulf early this evening with southwesterly winds ahead
of the trough axis measuring 70 to 80 knots.  An associated cold
front is located through SE Louisiana to 25N93.5W to the Mexican
coast at 21.5N.  Winds are NW to N 20 to 30 knots behind the
front north of 26N.  The front is well-defined on visible
satellite imagery but lacks any deep convection.  The cold front
will exit the Gulf in 24 to 36 hours.  Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms should accompany the front as it moves SE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad ridging aloft covers the Caribbean with water vapor
imagery showing subsidence throughout and strongest over the
eastern half of the basin.  In the area bounded by 11N67W to
17N73W to 17N77W to 11N77W to 11N67W winds are NE TO E 20 to 30
knots with seas 8 to 12 feet in E swell.  Isolated showers are
located over the higher terrain of Hispaniola and Cuba.

...HISPANIOLA...

Strong subsidence aloft will limit thunderstorm activity for at
least the next couple of days.  Expect only isolated trade wind
showers during the next 24 hours mainly over high terrain.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad ridging aloft noted in the Caribbean extends northward
covering the Atlantic W of about 60W.  Moving downstream a
middle/upper level trough has its axis extending through 32N50W
to 18N58W and is moving E about 20 knots.  A middle/upper level
cyclonic circulation is forecast to develop near 26N37W in 48
hours.  A 1022 mb high remains centered over the Atlantic near
28N57W.  A cold front extends through 32N34W to 24N41W.
Cloudiness and scattered showers are present within 90 nm either
side of the front.  A weak 1020 mb high is centered over the E
Atlantic near 26N34W.  Expect the cold front to move slowly E
and gradually dissipate.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
CAB
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