[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
730 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to
05N13W.  The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
05N13W to 02N30W to the South American coast near 00N49W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring over
a broad area over the Atlantic waters from 04S to 04N between
32W and 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad ridging aloft covers the entire Gulf this evening with
satellite cloud drift winds indicating speeds of 70 to 80 knots
over the NW part and 50 to 60 knots over the remainder of the
area. A cold front is positioned through NE Florida to near
29N85W and then continues as a weakening warm front in the
vicinity of 26N93W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is
located in a 80 nm wide band centered from the Florida east
coast at 29.3N to 29N87W.  Elsewhere a weak surface trough is
analyzed over the Bay of Campeche from 22N96W to 19.5N91.5W.
Minimal convection was seen in the vicinity of the trough.  A
strong cold front will move rapidly southeastward from the coast
of Texas on Wednesday morning and reach from the Florida Big
Bend to the bay of Campeche by Thursday morning. NW to N winds
of 20 to 30 knots can be expected behind the front with the
highest winds N of 27N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Flow aloft over the entire basin is westerly with the highest
speeds...to 50 knots...over the NW part.  Water vapor imagery
indicates strong subsidence throughout the Caribbean and
surrounding areas.  The Caribbean is void of any deep
convection.  From 11N to 16N between 69W AND 78W east winds are
in the 20 to 25 knot range with seas 8 to 10 feet.  Winds are
forecast to increase to 25 to 30 knots overnight.

...HISPANIOLA...

Increasing clouds are observed over the higher terrain of
Hispaniola early this evening.  Strong subsidence aloft will
continue to minimize convection for at least the next couple of
days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The broad ridging aloft mentioned in the Gulf of Mexico
continues eastward into the Atlantic to about 60W with wind
speeds as a high as 60 knots.  A well-defined middle/upper level
trough is located over the central and east central Atlantic
with the axis along 45W north of 15N and is moving east 15 to 20
knots.  A ridge aloft covers the eastern Atlantic east of about
30W.  A 1022 mb high is centered over the Atlantic near 30N62W.
A cold front extends SW over the central Atlantic from 31N42W to
23N50W, then continues as a weakening cold front to 21N67W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found N of
28N east of the front to 38W.  A high pressure ridge extends SW
from near 31N29W to near 23N37W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
CAB
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