[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041709
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
109 PM EDT Tue Apr 4 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N11W to
06N15W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from
04N-07N between 14W and 18W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
axis extends from 06N15W to 03N28W to the South American coast
near 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over a
broad area along and NE of the Brazilian coast in an area bounded
by a line from 05N24W to 00N23W to 05S34W to 01S49W to 03N51W to
06N43W to 05N24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a cold front extends from the Big Bend of Florida
near 29.5N83.5W a short distance SW to 28.5N86W where it continues
as a dissipating warm front to the NW Gulf of Mexico near 27N90W.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present over
N Florida, and the adjacent NE Gulf N of 28N E of 85W. Elsewhere,
weak surface troughing is analyzed over the Bay of Campeche from
19.5N92.5W to 20.5N94.5W to 20N95.5W. No significant convection
was seen in the vicinity of the trough. The Gulf of Mexico has
15-20 kt Se flow S of the frontal boundary. The strongest winds
were observed over the eastern half of the Gulf. In the upper
levels, weak trough is moving eastward over Florida from the Gulf
with an axis along 81W. Broad SW to W upper-level flow is noted
over the Gulf. The flow changes from weakly rising over the
Western Gulf to weakly subsident over the Eastern Gulf. The front
currently over the NE Gulf is stalling and will begin to lift
slowly northward out of the Gulf as a weakening warm front. A new
and stronger cold front will sweep southeastward from the coast of
Texas on Wednesday morning and reach from the Florida Big Bend to
the bay of Campeche by Thursday morning. NW to N winds of 20 to
20 kt can be expected behind the front. A line of convection is
likely to accompany the front as it heads into the Gulf.


CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-25 kt E to SE winds generally cover the Caribbean Sea. The
weakest winds are over the Leeward Islands and extreme SW
Caribbean. Winds are 25 to 30 kt along the coast of Colombia.
Isolated moderate convection is the Yucatan Peninsula, and the
Yucatan Channel. Cloudiness and convection are rather sparse over
the Caribbean. Deep layer ridging and subsidence over the entire
basin. Expect little change during the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Only a few isolated showers are observed over the higher terrain
of Hispaniola. Very strong subsidence aloft will continue to
minimize convection for at least the next couple of days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1022 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N62W. A
cold front extends SW over the central Atlantic from 31N43W to
23N53W to 21N59W, then continues as a weakening cold front to
21N67W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found N
of 29N between 38W and 42W. Cloudiness and isolated showers are
observed within 45 nm of the remainder of the front S of 29N. A
high pressure ridge extends SW from W of France near 50N14W over
the E Atlantic to near 22N38W. Expect the central Atlantic cold
front to move E and reach from 31N36W to 25N45W to 22N56W. Model
guidance suggests cloudiness and scattered showers will be
occurring along and up to 90 nm ahead of the front in 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
McElroy
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