[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021727
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
127 PM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator
to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery,
weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of west Africa near
11N15W to 04N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone extends from
04N23W to the coast of South America near 04S39W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 01N-06N between 10W- 14W, and from
5S-2N between 18w-34w.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front is inland over central Texas with scattered moderate
to strong convection. Similar convection is inland over Louisiana.
Scattered showers are also over the Florida Keys, and S Florida.
The Gulf of Mexico has 10-20 kt SE flow with the strongest winds
over the W Gulf W of 90W. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the
Gulf with axis along 80W. Upper level moisture is over Texas and
Louisiana, and the E Gulf E of 90W. Expect in 24 hours for the
cold front to extend from S Louisiana near 30N91W to Tampico
Mexico near 22N97W with convection. 20 kt NW winds will be W of
front. Also expect more scattered showers over Florida.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with the weakest
winds over the Leeward Islands, and the strongest winds along the
coast of Colombia. Isolated moderate convection is over the SW
Caribbean S of 11N, Costa Rica, and Panama. Mostly fair weather is
over the remainder of the Caribbean. In the upper levels, a ridge
is over the Caribbean with axis along 80W. Upper level moisture
is over the SW Caribbean, while stong subsidence is over the
remainder of the Caribbean. Expect little change over the next 24
hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather is presently over Hispaniola. Very strong subsidence
is also aloft suppressing thunderstorm activity. Expect in 24
hours for an increase in surface moisture within the tradewind
flow. Scattered showers are likely to advect over E Hispaniola.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N63W to 29N70W. A
prefrontal trough extends from 31N58W to 27N66W. Scattered
showers are within 90 nm E of the trough. Scattered showers are
also over portions of N Bahamas. A 1021 mb high is over the
central Atlantic near 26N48W. A stationary front is over the
E Atlantic from 31N30W to 20N43W. Scattered showers are within 45
nm of the front. Expect the W Atlantic cold front to move E and
reach 31N50W in 24 hours with showers. Also expect the stationary
front to dissipate.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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