[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 021045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
645 AM EDT Sun Apr 2 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of west Africa near
07N13W and continues to 04N19W. The Intertropical Convergence
Zone extends from 04N19W to the coast of South America near
02S41W. Scattered moderate convection was noted from 03N-03S
between 20W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A diffluent flow aloft over the western portion of the basin
supports cloudiness with a few showers mainly north of 25N.
Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly winds west
of 90W while light to gentle winds prevail over the eastern half
of Gulf. Southeast return flow is forecast to increase over the
northwest Gulf fueling scattered strong to severe thunderstorms
over the extreme NW Gulf and along the Upper Texas and Louisiana
coasts this evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper-level anticyclonic flow dominated the entire basin with an
area of strong subsidence extending across the north-central
Caribbean, then east-southeastward to the northern Leeward
Islands. Mid to upper-level moisture was noted across Cuba
extending over the Bahamas. At the surface, gentle to moderate
trades were noted across most of the Caribbean except moderate to
fresh winds south of 14N between 64W-77W. Expect little change in
general weather conditions over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Strong subsidence was noted over the island at this time. Little
change in the overall pattern is expected through the remainder of
the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A 1019 mb surface high is centered over the west Atlantic near
29N78W. To the east, a surface trough extends from 31N63W to
29N69W. A 1020 mb surface high is centered near 26N50W. The
remains of a frontal system were analyzed as a surface trough that
extends from 30N31W to 24N38W. No significant convection is
related to any of these features at this time. Expect during the
next 24 hours for the troughs to dissipate. Surface ridging will
prevail across the basin.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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