[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of W Africa near
06N11W and continues to 04N15W. The Intertropical Convergence
Zone extends from 03N18W to the equator at 28W and continues
through 01S30W to the coast of South America near 04S40W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 02N
to 04S between 30W-40W. Scattered moderate to strong convection
was noted from 02N-06N between 14W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

An amplifying ridge dominated the western Gulf of Mexico with
increasing southwesterly upper level flow. The axis of a 75-90
KT subtropical jet extended from northern Mexico across the
extreme NW Gulf. The jet capped an expanding area of mainly high
level clouds over the NW half of the Gulf. The flow was becoming
more diffluent over the area ahead of a digging mid to upper
level trough over New Mexico. As of 2100 UTC, a surface trough
extended from 23N89W to the Yucatan Peninsula. Light to moderate
return E to SE winds prevailed over the entire Gulf with the
strongest winds N of 25N W of 94W. SE return flow is forecast to
increase to 20-25 KT, locally stronger over the NW third of the
Gulf fueling scattered strong to severe thunderstorms over the
extreme NW Gulf and along the Upper Texas and Louisiana coasts
by late SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic flow dominated the entire basin with an
area of strong subsidence extending from Honduras across the
north-central Caribbean, Jamaica and Hispaniola then east-
southeastward to the northern Leeward Islands. A belt of mid to
upper level moisture was noted across Cuba extending over the
Bahamas. At the surface modest trade winds were noted across the
Caribbean with surface observations and recent scatterometer
passes indicating 10-20 KT winds, except locally 20-25 KT winds
within 90 NM of the coast of Colombia. A belt of 20 KT winds was
noted over the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated moderate convection
was noted Panama, the SW Caribbean S of 11N and over NW Cuba.
Expect little change in general conditions over the next 24
hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

A belt of strong subsidence was noted over Hispaniola which
resulted in only scattered low clouds across the island this
afternoon and evening, less cloud cover than in previous days.
The 1200 UTC sounding from Santo Domingo showed limited low
level moisture with pronounced subsidence above 800 MB. Little
change in the overall pattern is expected through the
remainder of the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Upper level anticyclonic flow dominated the basin S of 25N and W
of 60W. The flow became more zonal N of 25N as a flat mid to
upper level trough sweeps eastward of the CONUS. Strong
subsidence covered the area in the wake of the trough,
generally N of 27N between 60W-75W. A downstream sharp trough
was noted along 41W/42W which extended deep into the tropics. At
the surface, a weakening cold front over the NW Atlantic extends
from 31N71W to the N Bahamas to just east of Miami, Florida.
Scattered to broken low clouds with embedded showers were noted
within 60-90 NM E of the front N of 29N. Isolated but weakening
showers are also over portions of the northern Bahamas. A 1022
mb high is over the central Atlantic near 27N55W, moving east. A
dissipating cold front is over the central Atlantic from 32N34W
to 25N43W. A pre-frontal trough extended from 30N33W to 23N41W.
Patches of broken low clouds were noted within 60 NM of the
front. The cold fronts over the basin are forecast to dissipate
over the next 24 hours with only surface troughs remaining.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Cobb
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net