[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 PM EDT Sat Apr 1 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends from the coast of W Africa near 06N10W
and continues to 03N15W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone
extends from 03N15W to 00N27W to the coast of South America near
03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm on either
side of the ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 01/1500 UTC, the tail end of a dissipating cold front
extends from S Florida at 26N80W to the SE Gulf of Mexico near
25N83W. Scattered showers are over the S Florida Keys. A 1006 mb
low is centered over N Mexico near 29N102W. The Gulf of Mexico has
10-20 kt E to SE flow with the strongest winds over the W Gulf W
of 90W. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Gulf with axis
along 87W. Upper level moisture is over the central Gulf, while
stong subsidence is over Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula. Expect
in 24 hours for scattered showers to be along the Texas coast.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

10-20 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with the weakest
winds over the Leeward Islands, and S of Cuba. Isolated moderate
convection is over N Colombia, Panama, and the SW Caribbean S of
11N. Scattered showers are over Trinidad, S of Puerto Rico, and
over central Cuba. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the
Caribbean with axis along 80W. Upper level moisture is over the
SW Caribbean, while stong subsidence is over the remainder of the
Caribbean. Expect little change over the next 24 hours.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather is presently over Hispaniola. Very strong subsidence
is also aloft suppressing thunderstorm activity. Expect in 24
hours for an increase in surface moisture within the tradewind
flow. Scattered showers are likely to advect over E Hispaniola.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N73W to the N Bahamas
to S Florida near 26N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm E of
front N of 29N. Scattered showers are also over portions of N
Bahamas. A 1022 mb high is over the central Atlantic near 28N58W,
moving E. A dissipating cold front is over the central Atlantic
from 31N37W to 26N46W . Scattered showers are within 45 nm of the
front. A 1022 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 24N36W. Expect
this high to dissipate over the next 24 hours. Also expect the W
Atlantic cold front to move E and reach 31N60W in 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa

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