[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062348
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
748 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 26.4N 78.8W at 06/2300 UTC or
about 4 nm south of Freeport Grand Bahama Island, moving
northwest near 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds speed is 120 kt with
gusts to 145 kt making Matthew a strong category 4 hurricane. Estimated
central minimum pressure is 938 mb. Numerous showers and
thunderstorms are observed from 23N-31W between 75W-81W affecting
portions of the Florida Peninsula, the Bahamas and less activity
over northern Cuba. Matthew is expected to continue moving
northwest approaching the Florida Peninsula during the next 24
hours. Please see the latest NHC Intermediate Public Advisory
under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC
for more details.

Hurricane Nicole is centered near 27.5N 65.1W at 06/2100 UTC or
288 nm south of Bermuda, moving north-northwest at 6 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate
convection is from 25N-29N between 62W-66W. Please see the latest
NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25
KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving over the eastern Caribbean with axis from
18N66W to northern Venezuela 08N66W, moving west near 10 kt. The wave
coincides with a broad 700 mb trough depicted by global guidance
and is embedded within an area of low-level moisture. Despite
this, no significant convection is related to this wave at this
time.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 12N16W to 10N18W where the ITCZ begins and
continues to 07N30W to a 1007 mb surface low located near 07N42W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 05N-11N between 20W-35W.
Isolated showers surround the low.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed over the Florida
Straits and Florida Peninsula mainly east of 82W due to Matthew.
Please refer to the section above for more information about this
hurricane. Fair weather prevails across the remainder of the
basin, with a surface ridge extending over the area anchored by a
1026 mb high centered over northeastern CONUS. Scatterometer data
depicts light to gentle northeasterly winds across the western
portion of the basin while gentle to moderate northeasterly winds
are east of 90W, with strongest winds north of 28W. Expect a
similar weather pattern through the next 24 hours.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please
refer to the section above for details. Isolated showers prevail
over northern Cuba due to Matthew. No significant convection is
observed across the remainder of the basin. Scatterometer data
depicts gentle to moderate trades across the basin. Expect during
the next 24 hours for the tropical wave to continue moving west.
A surface trough, currently located east of the Lesser Antilles,
will move west over the islands with convection. the rain over
Cuba will dissipate as Matthew continues moving northwest.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island. Moisture will increase
during the next 24 hours as a tropical wave approaches from the
east. Scattered showers could develop in the afternoon hours as
the moisture combines with diurnal heating.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Hurricane Matthew continues moving northwest across the west
Atlantic affecting the Bahamas and the Florida Peninsula while
Nicole became a hurricane this afternoon, with winds of 75 kt
gusting to 95 kt. Please refer to the section above for details.
A surface trough extends to the east of the Lesser Antilles from
15N58W to 11N58W. Scattered light to moderate convection is
observed from 11N-19N between 54W-60W. The remainder of the basin
is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored by a 1020 mb
high near 29N50W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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