[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061801
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT THU OCT 6 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Matthew is centered near 25.7N 78.4W at 06/1800 UTC or
about 56 nm south-southeast of Nassau and ab

 Matthew is expected to track northwest today with a turn to
north-northwest expected tonight.
The center of Matthew should pass near Andros Island and New
Providence in the northwestern Bahamas early this morning, then
pass near Grand Bahama Island late today, and move very close to
the east coast of the Florida peninsula tonight through Friday
night.out 108 nm east-
southeast of West Palm Beach, Florida moving northwest at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt making Matthew a
strong category 4 hurricane. Numerous strong convection is from
23N-26N between 76W-79W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is elsewhere from 20N-29N between 74W-80W, including
portions of Cuba and the central Bahama Islands. See latest NHC
Intermediate Public Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC and the full Forecast/Advisory under
AWIPS/ WMO headers MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC for more details.

Hurricane Nicole is centered near 27.3N 65.0W at 06/1800 UTC or
300 nm south of Bermuda and about 539 nm north of San Juan,
Puerto Rico moving northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with
gusts to 85 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from
24N-29N between 62W-66W. See latest NHC Forecast/ Advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...


 Matthew is expected to track northwest today with a turn to
north-northwest expected tonight.
The center of Matthew should pass near Andros Island and New
Providence in the northwestern Bahamas early this morning, then
pass near Grand Bahama Island late today, and move very close to
the east coast of the Florida peninsula tonight through Friday
night.
Tropical wave is over the E Caribbean from 19N65W to 09N65W
moving west near 15 kt. Wave coincides with a 700 mb trough and
remains embedded within an area of low level moisture. The wave
is mostly void of precipitation.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 12N15W to 10N18W where the ITCZ begins and
continues to 07N2Clusters of scattered moderate convection are
from 5N-10N between 47W-51W.4W to 07N40W. Clusters of scattered
moderate convection are from 04N-11N between

 Matthew is expected to track northwest today with a turn to
north-northwest expected tonight.
The center of Matthew should pass near Andros Island and New
Providence in the northwestern Bahamas early this morning, then
pass near Grand Bahama Island late today, and move very close to
the east coast of the Florida peninsula tonight through Friday
night. 21W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

15-20 kt northerly winds are over Central and Southern Florida,
and the SE Gulf of Mexico due to the northern extent of
Hurricane Matthew. Bands of scattered moderate convection are
now over S Florida and the Florida Keys. 15-25 kt NE winds are
over the N Gulf N of 28N due to surface ridging. In the upper
levels, a small upper level high is centered over S Mexico near
18N97W. A small upper level low is also centered over the
Yucatan Channel near 22N85W. Expect over the next 24 hours for
surface winds to increase over the E Gulf E of 85W to 20-30 kt
due to the expanded wind field of Hurricane Matthew.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate convection persists over Central Cuba due to
Hurricane Matthew. A tropical wave is over the E Caribbean along
65W, void of precipitation. A surface trough is ,however, just E
of the Caribbean from 16N55W to 11N56W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is from 11N-16N between 54W-60W
moving W into the Caribbean. In the upper levels, a small upper
level low is also centered over the Yucatan Channel near 22N85W.
Another upper level low is centered over the SE Caribbean near
11N66W. Expect over the next 24 hours for the convection over
Central Cuba to move N, while, increased convection enters the E
Caribbean due to the surface trough.

...HISPANIOLA...

Broken to overcast multilayered clouds with scattered showers
persist over Haiti. Mostly fair weather is over The Dominican
Republic. Expect gradual clearing over Haiti within the next 24
hours as Matthew moves away from the Island.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A main concern today is Hurricane Matthew moving across the
Bahamas and toward the southeast Florida. Hurricane conditions
are still affecting portions of the central Bahamas and are
already spreading across the northwestern Bahamas. Hurricane
conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane warning
area in Florida by late today and will spread northward within
the warning area through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are
first expected in Florida within the next several hours. A
secondary concern is Hurricane Nicole also over the Western
Atlantic. See Special Features above. A 1022 mb high is centered
over the Central Atlantic near 31N51W producing fair weather.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
Formosa
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