[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
105 AM EST TUE NOV 29 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southerly gale-force winds are present in the Gulf of Mexico,
to the north of 26N and to the west of 90W. Expect sea heights to
range from 8 feet to 12 feet. The gale-force winds are expected to
diminish during the next few hours. Gale-force winds are forecast
to return to the Gulf of Mexico in about 42 hours or so, with a
cold front, along 30N89W 24N94W 20N97W. Expect N gale-force
winds and sea heights reaching 8 feet, to the northwest of the
cold front from 22N to 25N. Please refer to the High Seas
Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for
more details.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea-Bissau near
11N16W to 08N20W. The ITCZ continues from 08N20W, to 07N27W,
05N32W, and 07N36W. A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 08N39W.
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to strong
from 03N to 09N between 20W and 33W, and from 07N to 09N between
37W and 40W. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 10N southward from
44W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A deep layer trough is moving through the central U.S.A. Upper
level anticyclonic wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico. A cold
front is along the Texas coast, being supported by the deep layer
trough in the central U.S.A. Expect the LIFR conditions in Texas to
improve once the cold front moves more and more to the east, away
from Texas.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: KGLS.

IFR: KXIH and KGHB.

MVFR: KBBF, KBQX, KHHV, KVAF, KEMK, KGUL, KHQI, KEHC, KVQT,
KGRY, KATP, KEIR, KSPR, KMIS, and KDLP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

TEXAS: LIFR in Brownsville. MVFR in Port Isabel. LIFR in Robstown.
IFR at the NAS in Corpus Christi. LIFR in Port Lavaca, Palacios,
Bay City, Angleton/Lake Jackson, Galveston, Beaumont/Port Arthur
and Jasper, in Pearland and at the southern Houston-area airports.
LOUISIANA: IFR in Lake Charles. MVFR in Lafayette and New Iberia,
in Patterson, in Port Fourchon, and in Galliano. Rain has ended
for the moment in Baton Rouge. MVFR around Lake Pontchartrain.
Light rain at the New Orleans Lakefront Airport. Mississippi: MVFR
in Gulfport and McComb. Light rain in the Hattiesburg metropolitan
area. ALABAMA: MVFR in parts of the Mobile metropolitan area, and
in SE Alabama just to the north of the Florida state line. FLORIDA:
MVFR in Pensacola and Milton, and in Tallahassee.

...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from an Atlantic Ocean 21N65W
cyclonic circulation center, to 15N65W in the Caribbean Sea,
to NW coastal Venezuela. Rainfall amounts of 2 inches in Curacao,
and 3 inches in Guadeloupe, have been reported during the last 24
hours. Convective precipitation: numerous strong from 15N to 18N
between 56W and 58W in the Atlantic Ocean. Widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong in the SE Caribbean Sea from 14N
southward between 60W and 68W. One surface trough is along 20N58W
15N64W, to the ABC Islands. A second surface trough is along
25N61W 21N64W 17N65W.

...THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the
Caribbean Sea, away from the Atlantic Ocean-to SE Caribbean Sea
trough. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in
water vapor imagery, elsewhere, to the west of the Atlantic Ocean-
to- eastern Caribbean Sea upper level trough.

The monsoon trough is along 09N75W in Colombia, to 11N82W, beyond
northern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Convective
precipitation: isolated moderate from 13N southward from 71W
westward.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
29/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 3.47 in
in Guadeloupe, and 2.02 in Curacao.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level NE wind flow is moving across the island. Comparatively
drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across
the area.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR/no
ceiling. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR/no ceiling.
Santo Domingo: VFR/no ceiling. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR/no
ceiling. Santiago: VFR/no ceiling. Puerto Plata: MVFR. ceiling at
1600 feet.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A central Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is supporting a cold
front that passes through 32N54W to 28N61W and 26N71W.

An upper level trough passes through 32N21W to 16N27W to 10N33W.
A dissipating stationary front extends from a 1016 mb low pressure
center that is near 30N37W to 28N36W and 26N37W.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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