[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282355
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
655 PM EST MON NOV 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A tight pressure gradient has developed in the northwest Gulf of
Mexico ahead of a cold front supporting gale force winds north of
26N and west of 90W. These conditions will continue through
tonight. Please refer to the High Seas Forecast product under
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 11N15W to 07N21W where it transitions to the ITCZ
and continues to 06N35W. A 1011 mb surface low is centered near
08N38W with a surface trough extending from the low to 11N38W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 03N-10N between 21W-35W.
Isolated showers are observed near the low center.

...DISCUSSION...

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The southern portion of a cold front is currently located over
southern Texas enhancing winds across the northwest Gulf. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge,
anchored by a 1023 mb high centered over the west Atlantic. The
pressure gradient generated by these features in the northwest
Gulf is supporting gale force winds mainly north of 26N and west
of 90W. Please refer to the section above for details. Scatterometer
data depicts moderate to fresh southerly winds across the basin
outside of the gale area. Expect for the cold front to enter the
northwest Gulf tonight where it will stall. The front will be
reinforced by late Tuesday reaching the Florida Big Bend area to
the central Bay of Campeche Wednesday evening. North winds will
increase to gale force off the coast of Mexico near Tampico
Wednesday afternoon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper-level trough over the central Atlantic dips south over
the east Caribbean. This upper-level feature is reflected at the
surface as a trough extending from 12N68W to 18N62W. A diffluent
flow aloft is supporting numerous showers and thunderstorms to
the east of this surface trough affecting the Lesser Antilles and
adjacent waters east of 63W. The Monsoon Trough extends along 10N
between 76W-83W with isolated showers. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh northerly winds across the basin. Expect for the
surface trough to continue to shift east and stall Tuesday over
the far west Caribbean only to return west Wednesday.

...HISPANIOLA...

Fair weather prevails across the island at this time. An upper-
level anticyclone will approach the island from the west keeping
the island dry and stable through the next 24 hours.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge prevails across the west Atlantic anchored by a
1023 mb high centered near 36N73W. To the east, an upper trough
over the west into the central Atlantic is supporting a frontal
boundary analyzed as a stationary front from 27N72W to 29N64W then
as a cold front from that point to 32N57W. No significant
convection is related to these fronts at this time. A surface
trough is to the south extending from 28N56W to 31N54W. Another
trough is located from 19N65W to 25N60W. These troughs are
supported by a diffluent flow aloft enhancing scattered light to
moderate convection between 49W-65W. A shortwave upper trough is
in the east Atlantic along 34W, supporting 1015 mb low near
30N36W with a stationary front extending from the low to 26N34W
to 24N38W. A surface trough is to the southeast of this low extending
from 26N30W to 23N27W. Isolated showers are observed along the
front and trough. Expect during the next 24 hours for the front in
the west-central Atlantic to dissipate. The low in the east
Atlantic will also dissipate. The next cold front will move off the
Georgia coast later in the week.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA
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