[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280537
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1237 AM EST MON NOV 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 11N15W to
06N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
06N19W to 05N25W to 07N36W to 04N43W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is from the Equator to 07N between 20W-36W. A surface
trough is embedded within the ITCZ from 06N36W to 11N37W. Widely
scattered convection is from 05N-12N between 33W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Water vapor imagery indicated middle to upper level ridging over
the Gulf basin this evening that continues to support a surface
ridge axis extending from the across the Carolinas SW through the
Florida Big Bend region to the SW Gulf near 21N94W. Gentle to
moderate E-SE winds prevail E of 90W while fresh to strong S-SE
winds are noted W of 90W. The return flow is occurring within the
southern periphery of an intense area of low pressure analyzed
across the northern US Plains. The associated cold front is
expected to move eastward across Texas overnight into Monday and
emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts Monday night into early
Tuesday and likely stall across the NW Gulf waters. Another
reinforcing and strong cold front is expected Wednesday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A middle to upper level shortwave trough is progressing eastward
over the north-central Caribbean with axis extending SW to 12N78W.
Dry and stable NW flow prevails W of the trough axis with fair
skies and conditions across the NW Caribbean...Central America...
and the SW Caribbean N of the Monsoon Trough axis along 10N.
Scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring S of 10N across
portions of Panama and northern Colombia. E of the trough axis...
middle to upper level moisture and cloudiness increase within W-SW
flow aloft. A surface trough extends across Hispaniola from 20N70W
to 15N70W providing focus for scattered showers and isolated tstms
occurring N of 14N between 62W-70W. Otherwise...moderate SE winds
prevail E of the trough axis and moderate to occasional fresh NE
winds prevail W of the trough axis.

...HISPANIOLA...
A surface trough extends along 70W and is providing focus for
widely scattered showers across the island this evening...while
scattered showers and isolated tstms are occurring across the NE
and SE adjacent coastal waters within the SW North Atlc and
Caribbean Sea respectively. A middle to upper level shortwave
trough is noted on water vapor imagery moving over the island
tonight and once this feature moves E of the region...NW flow
aloft and a much drier and more stable environment will prevail
for much of the week ahead.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A middle to upper level trough is progressing eastward over the SW
North Atlc into the central Atlc with axis extending into the
discussion area near 32N66W SW to over western Hispaniola and into
the SW Caribbean Sea. The troughing supports a cold front analyzed
from 32N63W SW to 27N70W to Andros Island in the Bahamas near
25N78W. A pre-frontal surface trough is analyzed from the cold
front near 27N68W southward to 20N70W. Scattered showers and
isolated tstms are occurring mostly E of the cold front and
surface trough from 18N-32N between 55W-70W. The remainder of the
SW North Atlc is under the influence of a surface ridge anchored
by a 1024 mb high centered across the Carolinas. Farther east...an
upper level trough is noted in the vicinity of 31N37W that
supports a 1014 mb low centered near 32N38W. A stationary front
extends from the low to 30N36W to 25N42W with scattered showers
and isolated tstms occurring from 28N-35N between 27W-37W. The
area of lower pressure extends southward to a 1012 mb low centered
near 18N39W with a surface trough analyzed from the low center to
14N44W to 13N56W. Isolated showers are occurring from 14N-20N
between 27W-38W to the E of the low.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
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