[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 280003
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
703 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough reaches the coastal areas of Guinea near
10N14W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W, to 04N27W,
08N36W, and 05N50W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong from 10N southward from 45W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

The upper level trough from 24 hours ago is in the western
Atlantic Ocean. Upper level NW wind flow is in the Gulf of Mexico,
from 90W eastward, moving toward the base of the trough, to the
east of the Gulf of Mexico.

An upper level ridge is along 96W/97W, in the coastal waters from
Texas to Mexico.

A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico. Convective precipitation: rainshowers are possible from
28N southward from 94W westward, in broken low level to middle
level clouds.

A surface ridge passes through the coastal plains of Mexico, into
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force winds
have been present in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the eastern
Pacific Ocean side of southern Mexico for much of the last few
days. The gale-force winds are forecast to be weaken and to be
less than gale-force soon. Please read the Eastern Pacific Ocean
HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...and the Eastern
Pacific Ocean TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20
KNHC...for more details.

...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL
PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: none.

MVFR: KVAF, KEMK, and KATP.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

from TEXAS to FLORIDA: VFR/no ceilings.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level ridge extends from SE Nicaragua to the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec of southern Mexico.

A separate area of upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the
Caribbean Sea, to the east of the line that runs from SE Nicaragua
to Hispaniola. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from
77W eastward.

The monsoon trough is along 11N73W in Colombia, to 12N76W,
beyond 10N84W in Costa Rica. Convective precipitation: isolated
moderate from 06N to 10N between 76W and 84W.

24-HOUR rainfall totals in inches for the period ending at
27/1200 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.62 in
Kingston in Jamaica, 0.59 in Trinidad, 0.53 in San Juan in
Puerto Rico, 0.39 in Curacao, and 0.05 in Monterrey in Mexico.

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level W and SW wind flow is moving across the entire area.
An upper level trough is along 74W/75W in the Atlantic Ocean. The
southernmost part of the trough is sweeping across Cuba into the
Windward Passage. A surface trough is along 26N69W in the
Atlantic Ocean, 23N72W, to the northern part of the Windward
Passage. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate across the
island, and elsewhere in the coastal waters/coastal areas of
Hispaniola.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: rain. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo: MVFR. ceiling at 1600 feet. rain has ended for the
moment. La Romana and Punta Cana: rainshowers in each city.
Santiago and Puerto Plata: rain and thunder in each city.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that the current 74W/75W
upper level trough will move across Hispaniola during the next 24
hours. The wind flow will become NW-to-N after the trough moves
eastward and away from Hispaniola. Expect N wind flow across
Hispaniola during day two. An anticyclonic circulation center will
move from the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea to SE Cuba by the end
of day two. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that the
upper level 74W/75W trough will move across Hispaniola during the
next 24 hours. The wind flow will become NW-to-N after the trough
moves eastward and away from Hispaniola. Expect N-to-NE wind flow
across Hispaniola during day two as an anticyclonic circulation
center will move from the Yucatan Peninsula to the NW Bahamas.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow,
and variable at times, will move across the area during the next
24 hours. Day two will consist of N wind flow at the start, with a
trough, becoming NE wind flow with an Atlantic Ocean-to-Hispaniola
ridge.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A western Atlantic Ocean upper level trough is supporting a cold
front that passes just to the east of Bermuda, to the NW Bahamas,
across the Florida Keys and 25N82W. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate, and weakening, from 24N to 28N between 73W and
74W. widely scattered moderate from 20N northward between 60W and
75W, to the east of the upper level trough.

An upper level trough extends from a 32N38W cyclonic circulation
center, to 22N39W to 16N48W. The trough supports a 1012 mb low
pressure center that is near 32N38W, and a cold front that curves
away from the 1012 mb low pressure center, to 32N36W and 25N42W.
A surface trough is along 28N37W 23N40W. A second surface trough
extends from a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 18N39W, to
13N46W and 13N52W. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate
within 120 nm to 240 nm on either side of 13N60W 13N50W 15N40W.
Isolated moderate to locally strong from 10N northward between 20W
and 40W.,

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT
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