[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260519
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1219 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 10N14W to
08N19W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N19W to 05N32W to 06N36W and from 10N50W to 10N61W. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is from 04N-08N between
03W-14W...and from 04N-09N between 19W-31W. Widely scattered
moderate is elsewhere from 02N-14N between 27W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
Broad middle to upper level troughing is over the eastern CONUS
with mid-level shortwave energy noted on water vapor imagery over
Alabama and Georgia this evening progressing eastward. The
shortwave supports an area of low pressure analyzed across the
Carolinas with the associated cold front extending across SE
Georgia and the Florida panhandle to 30N85W W-SW to 28N90W to the
far southern Texas coast near 27N97W. Isolated showers are
occurring within 60 nm either side of the front E of 90W...and
across much of the western Gulf waters W of 90W. The cold front is
expected to become reinforced by a secondary cold front currently
across SE Texas through the overnight hours into Saturday with
N-NE winds increasing slightly from gentle to moderate levels into
moderate to occasional fresh by Saturday night. Surface ridging to
the north across the mid-Mississippi River valley this evening
will slide E-SE through Sunday and anchor across the Carolinas
Sunday night into Monday. On Sunday...southerly return flow across
the western Gulf will gradually increase into fresh to strong
levels as an area of low pressure ejects into the central Plains
and moves N-NE into the northern Plains by Monday. The associated
cold front will emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coasts by late
Monday night into Tuesday morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
Subtle upper level troughing is noted on water vapor imagery over
Cuba and portions of the north-central Caribbean as upper level
ridging persists over the NW Caribbean and Central America...along
with much of the eastern Caribbean E of 72W. At the surface...
fresh to occasional strong E-NE winds prevail between lower
pressure across northern South America and a 1024 mb high centered
across the SW North Atlc region near 30N73W. Most intense
convection is occurring across the western Caribbean and portions
of Central America with scattered showers and strong tstms from
09N-17N between 73W-81W...and from 12N-18N between 85W-89W. The
pressure gradient is forecast to relax with the resulting trades
expected to decrease late Saturday as the ridge to the north
moves E-NE.

...HISPANIOLA...
A stationary front extends across the central Atlc to 21N60W then
W to the NW tip of Hispaniola near 20N73W. The front continues to
provide low-level moisture convergence across the region with
isolated showers persisting mainly within the adjacent coastal
waters for the overnight period. Given peak daytime heating and
instability...afternoon and evening scattered showers and
tstms will be possible on Saturday across the island.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 mb high is centered near 30N73W and influences much of the
SW North Atlc this evening with moderate to fresh anticyclonic
winds prevailing W of 58W. Water vapor imagery indicates a mid-
level shortwave trough progressing eastward over the SE CONUS
supporting a cold front analyzed from the Carolinas SW to the
Florida panhandle that will emerge off the eastern US coast
Saturday. Fresh to occasional strong northerly winds will follow
in wake of the front by Sunday as high pressure builds in behind
the front. Across the central Atlc...an upper to middle level
trough is noted in the vicinity of 33N50W with the associated
stationary front analyzed from 32N42W to 30N47W into a 1016 mb low
near 25N51W to 24N55W to 21N60W then W to 20N73W. Isolated showers
are possible within 120 nm either side of the front with isolated
tstms occurring E of the low center from 23N-27N between 47W-52W.
Otherwise...the remainder of the eastern Atlc is under the
influence of a middle to upper level trough along 35W promoting an
upper level diffluent environment supporting scattered showers and
isolated tstms from 14N-26N between 20W-34W. In addition...an
upper level low is centered near 39N10W over the adjacent coastal
waters of the Iberian peninsula supporting a cold front extending
into the discussion area near 32N10W. The front extends to the S
of the Canary Islands near 27N16W then W-NW to 31N26W. Fresh to
occasional strong NW winds follow in wake of the front across far
NE portions of the discussion area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
HUFFMAN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net